Products

Note: excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales; apparel, footwear, & accessories includes menswear, womenswear, kidswear, footwear, and accessories such as jewelry, sunglasses, and belts; auto and parts includes vehicles and aftermarket products such as auto accessories, replacement parts, auto equipment, and tools; computer and consumer electronics includes computers, consumer electronics and large appliances; food and beverage includes packaged foods, fresh foods, and beverages; furniture and home furnishings includes furniture, housewares, and small appliances; home improvement & garden includes building materials, flooring, paint, hardware, fixtures, lighting, and lawn and gardening equipment; household and personal consumables includes health products like over-the-counter medicines, vitamins and supplements, personal care or hygiene products, beauty products, and other household products like toiletries, baby products, and pet products; toy & hobby includes sporting goods, toys, musical instruments and other hobbies; the “other” product category includes automotive fuel and other items such as flowers, cards, photos, luggage, and cigarettes

Additional Note: The “tariff reversal” scenario assumes the Supreme Court invalidates President Trump’s 2025 IEEPA-based reciprocal tariffs, including the global 10% duty and related emergency-declaration actions. Removing these tariffs lowers import costs and channels duty refunds into promotions and discounts, creating a modest near-term lift in nominal sales for import-heavy retail categories versus the Q1-2026 baseline.

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.

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