The situation: Early forecasts for the World Cup painted a rosy picture. FIFA projected a $30.5 billion economic boost, while the US Travel Association expected a surge in tourism, with visitors spending around $5,000 per trip—about 1.7 times more than the typical international visitor—and 1 in 3 planning to stay longer than two weeks.

But those expectations now look overly optimistic. A mix of growing geopolitical tensions, high ticket prices, and soaring travel costs is prompting international fans to scale back their plans, dampening what was expected to be a blockbuster tournament. That poses a real challenge since global travelers are typically more willing than US consumers to travel for major international sporting events like the World Cup, per a recent YouGov survey.

The data: The pullback is evident across travel and hospitality indicators.

• Airline bookings made in January and February for June travel to host cities were down 5% YoY from Europe and 3.6% from Asia, while rising just 0.2% from South America, per Cirium data cited in Forbes.
• Softer-than-expected demand has prompted hotels to slash match-day room rates by roughly a third in cities like Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Philadelphia, and San Francisco, according to Lighthouse data cited by the Financial Times.
• That aligns with an OysterLink report cited in Hotel Dive, which found some operators are abandoning rigid event-based pricing and reopening inventory to general travelers.
• FIFA has cancelled tens of thousands of reserved rooms across host cities in the US, Canada, and Mexico, another sign of weakening demand.

Noting that New York City has yet to see a growing surge in demand, Hotel Association of NYC President Vijay Dandapani told the Financial Times that the World Cup “certainly will not be the cornucopia that FIFA was promising.”

Implications for the hospitality and retail industries: The World Cup—along with the semiquincentennial of US independence and the centennial of Route 66—was expected to be a major tailwind for the US travel industry following a tumultuous 2025, when foreign tourism to the US fell 5.4% even as global tourism grew 4%, per UN Tourism.

But that boost is now at risk. Inflationary pressures tied to the war in Iran, layered on top of the broader so-called “Trump slump” factors that weighed on demand last year—including strict immigration policies, LGBTQ+-related passport concerns, tighter border security, and currency fluctuations—are making the US an increasingly unwelcoming destination for international travelers.

The ripple effects are clear. Fewer visitors mean less spending on hotels, dining, entertainment, and retail. That increases the odds that the expected surge in high-value tourist spending will fall short, adding pressure on businesses that were counting on a rebound.