The news: The World Cup boosted US retail and restaurant sales in June, according to Bank of America’s latest consumer checkpoint report. Spending rose 6.3% YoY, the fastest pace in over four years.

• Combined debit and credit spending increased nearly 6% YoY in the first three weeks of the tournament (June 10 to June 30), compared with roughly 5% growth in the prior three weeks.
• Spending in US World Cup host cities accelerated after the competition started—particularly at restaurants, where growth in the last three weeks of June was roughly double its pace in the three weeks ended June 9.

Zoom in: While FIFA’s initial projection of a $30.5 billion boost to the US economy still seems overly optimistic, the World Cup is helping drive discretionary spending at a challenging time for retailers and restaurants. The bump is especially pronounced among lower-income consumers, suggesting that excitement around the event is temporarily outweighing some budgetary concerns despite persistent inflation and rising costs.

• Total card spending among lower-income households jumped nearly 10% in the first three weeks of the World Cup, compared with close to 6% and 8% for middle- and higher-income households, respectively.
• Lower-income households have also increased their spending at brick-and-mortar retailers and restaurants in host cities significantly more than other income cohorts, a possible indication that many are taking advantage of the World Cup to travel domestically and focus on experiences.

Whether that pace of spending continues after the last kick at the World Cup will depend largely on lower-income consumers’ financial situations. The evidence is mixed: Wage growth among the cohort accelerated to 4.2% YoY in June, narrowing the gap with higher-income households. On the other hand, over 25% of US adults have struggled to pay back credit card or buy now, pay later (BNPL) debt used to purchase groceries, according to an Urban Institute report, pointing to continued cost-of-living pressures among a wide swath of the population.

Implications for retailers and restaurants: This World Cup may not deliver the windfall many retailers, restaurants, and other businesses were hoping for, but it offers a template that companies can follow for other marquee sporting events, including the Super Bowl and the 2028 LA Olympics.

Emphasize community. Brands that lean into the communal aspect of watching sports—like Stella Artois’ Work From the Bar campaign and adidas’ Home of Soccer fan experience in New York’s Brooklyn Bridge Park—can benefit as consumers look for third places to spend their time and money.

Official sponsorships are optional. Brands like Taco Bell and Levi’s show that brands don’t need to pay for prime stadium or uniform placement to drive the cultural conversation.

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