Commerce media is entering a new phase, one defined less by rapid expansion and more by operational maturity, EMARKETER analysts and industry leaders say.

• Commerce media ad spending will reach $83.71 billion in the US this year, accounting for 20.5% of all digital ad spending, according to EMARKETER's June 2026 forecast.

As the channel becomes a core part of marketers' media strategies, the conversation is shifting from whether to invest to how to make those investments deliver measurable business results.

In a new EMARKETER guide titled "Commerce media outlook: What industry leaders see ahead," our analysts and industry leaders give their thoughts about the capabilities brands should prioritize today, the consumer behaviors that will shape tomorrow, and what it will take to succeed as commerce media becomes a permanent pillar of the media mix.

Sarah Marzano, a vice president and principal analyst at EMARKETER covering retail and commerce media, told us about the biggest misconceptions of the channel and where marketers are most confident in it.

Q. What's the biggest misconception marketers still have about where the industry is headed?

A: One of the biggest misconceptions is that the maturity of the industry's largest retail media networks reflects the maturity of the industry itself. It doesn't. The narrative that on-site retail media has reached its ceiling is largely shaped by companies like Amazon, where monetization is already highly developed. Most retailers are at a very different stage. They still have meaningful opportunities to optimize sponsored search and product listing ads before on-site inventory becomes a meaningful constraint.

Q. Your research suggests the next phase of commerce media growth will be driven less by bigger budgets and more by operational maturity. What capabilities will separate the leaders from everyone else?

A: Retailers are generally confident in their strategy and product vision. Where confidence starts to break down is in execution, particularly in areas like measurement, technology, and operating models. Those are the capabilities that will increasingly separate leaders from everyone else. Retailers that can prove incrementality, simplify fragmented technology stacks, automate workflows, and better align merchandising, marketing, and media teams around shared business objectives will be in the strongest position to attract advertiser investment and sustain growth over the long term.

Q. AI is transforming everything from campaign planning to optimization. Where do you think AI has the greatest opportunity to improve commerce media?

A: Retailer-native AI assistants have the potential to introduce entirely new advertising experiences into retailers' most valuable digital real estate. Instead of relying exclusively on keyword searches, they can respond to a shopper's broader context, preferences, and goals, creating opportunities for advertising that feels more conversational and relevant. That's exciting because retail media has historically been very good at capturing existing demand. Native AI assistants could expand their role by engaging shoppers much earlier in the decision-making process.

Q. As AI assistants become a bigger part of product discovery, what gives retailers and commerce media platforms an opportunity to remain trusted shopping destinations?

A: The discussion around AI often assumes that if consumers begin their shopping journey with a third-party AI assistant, retailers become less important. I don't think consumer behavior supports that conclusion. The research we've seen suggests consumers still validate AI recommendations before they buy by reading reviews, comparing products, and visiting retailer websites. That validation process is where trust is built. AI gives retailers an opportunity to make those trusted experiences even better, not just by personalizing recommendations, but by helping consumers move from consideration to confident purchase decisions.

Q. What one piece of advice about preparing for the next five years of commerce media would you give?

A: Prepare for a world where commerce media is judged less as a high-growth channel and more as a core part of the media mix. For years, simply having transaction data or a commerce media offering was enough to attract attention. That's no longer the case. Advertisers are going to expect the same level of measurement, planning, buying, and operational sophistication they already receive from search, social, and connected TV (CTV). At the same time, they'll expect commerce media partners to offer something those channels can't.

Read the full report.

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