The news: Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy is significantly outperforming Eli Lilly's obesity pill Foundayo, according to prescription tracking data reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Although Wegovy launched about three months earlier in 2026, the gap remains wide. In the week ending July 3, oral Wegovy generated roughly 153,000 US prescriptions, compared with just over 19,000 for Foundayo, according to IQVIA data cited in a JPMorgan research note. Novo's pill has about 89% market share, versus 11% for Lilly.

Zooming out: Several factors are fueling Novo's lead, according to the WSJ, most notably:

• Clinical efficacy. The Wegovy pill delivers about 14% average weight loss after just over a year of treatment, versus 10% to 12% for Foundayo. That difference may sound small, but even a few percentage points can matter when patients are choosing between the two options.
• Name recognition. Wegovy benefits from strong brand awareness after five years on the US market as an injectable GLP-1 and extensive advertising, doctors told the WSJ. By contrast, Foundayo is still unfamiliar to most consumers.
• Marketing investment. Foundayo's first TV ad aired just last month, while the Wegovy pill debuted its first national brand campaign during the Super Bowl in February.

Why it matters: Despite its first-mover advantage in GLP-1 injections with Ozempic and Wegovy, Novo lost ground to Lilly, whose GLP-1 portfolio faced less competition from compounded drugs (and international generics), navigated supply constraints more effectively, and delivered greater weight loss. Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound have far outpaced Wegovy and Ozempic in sales growth over the past year. Lilly now commands a $1 trillion market cap, with its stock up nearly 50% over the past year, while Novo's has fallen about 25%.

The obesity pill market gives Novo a new growth engine to offset the slowdown in its GLP-1 injection franchise. Reflecting the strong launch, FactSet doubled its 2026 Wegovy pill sales forecast, while Deutsche Bank has recently slashed its Foundayo sales estimate in half, per the WSJ.

Implications for GLP-1 drugmakers and marketers: We're still in the early days of oral GLP-1s, and Novo knows firsthand that an early lead in a prescription drug category doesn't guarantee lasting dominance. More drugmakers will eventually enter the market, each promoting its own point of differentiation, whether dosing schedule, drug interactions, side effects, muscle preservation, or other benefits.

Brand awareness and medication familiarity, alongside efficacy, are key competitive advantages in driving GLP-1 prescription growth. Oral Wegovy benefits from both: it shares its name with the blockbuster injection and uses the same active ingredient (semaglutide) as Wegovy and Ozempic. GLP-1 marketers lacking this advantage can build recognition through disease awareness campaigns, medical education, earned media, and digital content so the brand isn't unfamiliar at launch, while keeping physicians informed about clinical trial progress and anticipated launch timing.

This content is part of EMARKETER’s subscription Briefings, where we pair daily updates with data and analysis from forecasts and research reports. Our Briefings prepare you to start your day informed, to provide critical insights in an important meeting, and to understand the context of what’s happening in your industry. Not a subscriber? Click here to get a demo of our full platform and coverage.