The stat: Consumers are expected to spend a record $29.1 billion this year on Valentine’s Day, beating last year’s $27.5 billion, per the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
Average per-person spending is forecast to reach roughly $200, surpassing the record set in 2020.
Behind the numbers: While just over half (55%) of consumers plan to celebrate, those that do are spending heartily. Gifts for romantic partners account for roughly half of planned spending ($14.5 billion), but shoppers are also budgeting for gifts for children and other family members ($4.5 billion), friends ($2.4 billion), and even pets ($2.5 billion). Middle- and high-income spenders are driving most of this growth, Katherine Cullen, NRF’s vice president of industry and consumer insights, said in a statement.
Valentine’s Day could give department stores a much-needed sales jolt, as 35% of shoppers list them as a top shopping destination of choice for holiday purchases, just behind online channels (38%).
- JC Penney is hoping to capitalize with its Ex-Change event, where the first 100 customers at its store in Garden City, New York, and the first 50 at other participating outlets will be able to trade in an old piece of jewelry for a lab-grown diamond necklace.
- But Amazon could steal retailers’ momentum: The company’s Valentine’s Day sale has been running since mid-January, with a dedicated storefront that features gift ideas and deals.
Implications for retailers: Consumers continue to use events like Valentine’s Day as an excuse to spend indulgently on goods and experiences. However, most growth is coming from higher-income households, underscoring the market bifurcation that also characterized spending in 2025.
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