Executive Summary

The 2019 holiday season posted solid ecommerce and brick-and-mortar sales growth in line with our pre-season forecast. A strong consumer economy bolstered the cause, but a short holiday calendar weighed on spending growth. Concerns over a slowing economy suggest the 2020 holiday season will be even more challenged.

How much did retail spending increase during the 2019 holiday season?

Total retail spending was up 3.7% to $1.007 trillion, marking the first-ever trillion-dollar holiday season. Brick-and-mortar sales grew 2.4% to $869.40 billion, while ecommerce posted a more respectable growth rate of 13.2%, reaching $137.55 billion.

How much was spent online on Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday?

Cyber Monday was the heaviest online spending day in history, jumping 19.7% to $9.4 billion, according to Adobe. Black Friday posted a similarly strong gain at 19.6%, reaching $7.4 billion as the second-heaviest day of the season, followed by Thanksgiving’s 14.5% increase to $4.2 billion.

Which retailers were the winners and losers of the 2019 holiday season?

Amazon was the big winner in ecommerce, while Walmart and other click-and-collect retailers flexed their omnichannel muscles. Department stores like Macy’s, Kohl’s and JCPenney continued to struggle as mall foot traffic declined.

What is the forecast for holiday sales in 2020?

We predict the 2020 holiday season will see overall growth rates soften amid signs of a weakening consumer economy. We expect total retail spending to grow 3.4% to $1.042 trillion, but ecommerce growth will accelerate slightly to 13.9%, reaching $156.69 billion.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report includes a review of the 2019 US holiday season and an early preview of the 2020 holidays, including our recent US retail and ecommerce spending forecast.

KEY STAT: The 2019 US holiday season surpassed $1 trillion in sales for the first time in history.