Executive Summary

The 2020 US holiday season posted better-than-expected retail sales growth, as huge ecommerce gains added to a surprisingly positive performance for brick-and-mortar retail. The early outlook for the 2021 holiday season is solid despite major economic uncertainty ahead.

How much did retail spending increase during the 2020 holiday season?

Total retail spending was up 6.5% to $1.064 trillion. Brick-and-mortar sales grew 2.2% to $878.26 billion, while ecommerce jumped 32.5% to $185.88 billion.

How much was spent online on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday?

Cyber Monday was the heaviest online spending day in history, rising 15.6% to $10.78 billion. Black Friday sales increased 22.0% to $8.92 billion, while Thanksgiving sales rose 21.4% to $5.02 billion.

Which retailers were the winners and losers of the 2020 holiday season?

Retail leaders in key pandemic shopping categories—including Best Buy, The Home Depot, lululemon athletica, and Peloton—were among the biggest holiday season winners. The biggest ecommerce and omnichannel retailers, such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target, also did well as shoppers gravitated to the most reliable options for delivery and for click and collect.

What is the forecast for holiday sales in 2021?

We expect 2021 holiday retail sales to rise 2.7% to $1.093 trillion, with brick-and-mortar increasing 0.9% to $885.99 billion and ecommerce climbing 11.3% to $206.88 billion. We also expect that both Cyber Monday and Black Friday will surpass $10 billion in ecommerce sales.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report includes a review of the 2020 US holiday season and an early preview of the 2021 holidays, including our recent US retail and ecommerce spending forecast.

KEY STAT: The 2020 US holiday season surpassed $1 trillion in sales.