US Holiday 2020 Review and Holiday 2021 Preview

Mixed Signals in Better-than-Expected 2020 Holidays Point to Cautiously Optimistic 2021 Forecast

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About This Report
The 2020 holiday season’s unprecedented ecommerce surge helped total US retail spending remain positive, setting the tone for healthy outlook for 2021 holiday season growth.
Table of Contents

Executive Summary

The 2020 US holiday season posted better-than-expected retail sales growth, as huge ecommerce gains added to a surprisingly positive performance for brick-and-mortar retail. The early outlook for the 2021 holiday season is solid despite major economic uncertainty ahead.

How much did retail spending increase during the 2020 holiday season?

Total retail spending was up 6.5% to $1.064 trillion. Brick-and-mortar sales grew 2.2% to $878.26 billion, while ecommerce jumped 32.5% to $185.88 billion.

How much was spent online on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday?

Cyber Monday was the heaviest online spending day in history, rising 15.6% to $10.78 billion. Black Friday sales increased 22.0% to $8.92 billion, while Thanksgiving sales rose 21.4% to $5.02 billion.

Which retailers were the winners and losers of the 2020 holiday season?

Retail leaders in key pandemic shopping categories—including Best Buy, The Home Depot, lululemon athletica, and Peloton—were among the biggest holiday season winners. The biggest ecommerce and omnichannel retailers, such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target, also did well as shoppers gravitated to the most reliable options for delivery and for click and collect.

What is the forecast for holiday sales in 2021?

We expect 2021 holiday retail sales to rise 2.7% to $1.093 trillion, with brick-and-mortar increasing 0.9% to $885.99 billion and ecommerce climbing 11.3% to $206.88 billion. We also expect that both Cyber Monday and Black Friday will surpass $10 billion in ecommerce sales.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report includes a review of the 2020 US holiday season and an early preview of the 2021 holidays, including our recent US retail and ecommerce spending forecast.

KEY STAT: The 2020 US holiday season surpassed $1 trillion in sales.

Here’s what’s in the full report

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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. Holiday 2020 Review: Surprising Strength amid Pandemic Economy
    3. Holiday 2021 Preview: What to Expect and How to Plan for It
    1. Key Takeaways
    2. Insider Intelligence Interviews
    3. Read Next
    1. Sources
    2. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    Interviewed for This Report

    Ethan Chernofsky
    Placer.ai
    Vice President, Marketing
    Interviewed January 24, 2021
    Michelle Grant
    Salesforce
    Senior Manager, Strategy and Insights, Retail and Consumer Goods
    Interviewed January 19, 2021
    Satish Jindel
    ShipMatrix
    Founder and President
    Interviewed December 28, 2020
    Michael Klein
    Adobe
    Global Director, Industry Strategy and Marketing, Retail, Travel, and Consumer Goods
    Interviewed January 13, 2021

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    Read This With Insider Intelligence

    authors

    Andrew Lipsman

    Contributors

    Bianca Carasus
    Researcher
    Brian Lau
    Digital Apprentice
    Cindy Liu
    Senior Forecasting Analyst
    Victoria Petrock
    Principal Analyst
    Amy Rotondo
    Director, US Research
    Karin von Abrams
    Principal Analyst