The data points: The US has collected more than $1 billion in duties on over 246 million low-cost packages since it began phasing out the de minimis loophole last May, when it ended the exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong, per US Customs and Border Protection.

• The exemption was extended to apply to all packages in late August.
• Increased scrutiny of international shipments also drove an 82% jump in CBP seizures since May of unsafe and non-compliant low-value goods, including counterfeits, narcotics, faulty electronics, and products containing hazardous chemicals.

Why it matters: The policy shift has had a dramatic effect on consumer spending patterns.

• Before the change, annual de minimis volumes were steadily climbing, more than doubling from 2020 to 2024, per CBP.
• But by late August—just months after the administration closed the loophole for shipments from China and Hong Kong—the average number of packages arriving through customs had fallen sharply, from roughly 4 million per day to about 1 million, CBP told CNN.
• The shift has also forced platforms such as Shein and Temu to adapt their models, moving away from a sharp focus on selling ultra-low-cost goods shipped directly from overseas toward more traditional marketplace structures. That pivot has pushed them to court domestic sellers. Temu, for example, last month launched an app allowing Shopify merchants to manage listings, inventory, and fulfillment directly through their Shopify accounts.

Our take: Closing the de minimis exemption has leveled the playing field for domestic sellers, at least for now. But the durability of that advantage is uncertain.

• President Donald Trump relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the same authority underpinning many of his broader tariffs. Several conservative Supreme Court justices signaled skepticism about that authority during oral arguments in November.
• A ruling is expected early this year, and an adverse decision could trigger importer refunds and undermine the legal footing of the de minimis policy.

This content is part of EMARKETER’s subscription Briefings, where we pair daily updates with data and analysis from forecasts and research reports. Our Briefings prepare you to start your day informed, to provide critical insights in an important meeting, and to understand the context of what’s happening in your industry. Non-clients can click here to get a demo of our full platform and coverage.