Buy now, pay later’s (BNPL) next growth phase will depend on deeper engagement as user acquisition plateaus. Providers are driving spend from loyal users, but they must balance rising demand for budgeting tools with intensifying competition across wallets, installments, and high-ticket purchases.

Key Question: How will BNPL players position themselves for growth post-maturity?

Key Stat: By 2029, BNPL payment value growth will hit the single digits, forcing providers to look to existing users to drive spending. Key strategies will include expanding into higher-ticket categories, growing BNPL-enabled card adoption, and deepening mobile wallet integration.