The news: Mastercard outlined the top trends it expects to see next year in its 2024 economic outlook report.

Below are two that retailers and payment providers need to keep in mind:

Ecommerce returns outpace in-store:

• More consumers may wait until the last minute to make purchases now that supply chain issues are mostly resolved.
• Mastercard also expects consumers to add more options to their carts to try on at home.
• This will lead to a spike in ecommerce sales—and returns.
• Non-ecommerce return volume for retail purchases will grow only 0.5% in 2024, according to our forecast, while retail ecommerce return volume will increase 5.9% year over year (YoY).

Offering easy return options and fast refunds will become important factors to boost customer satisfaction. We may see more providers following Klarna’s path: It recently launched pre-issued refunds on eligible returns paid for with its BNPL product.

Travel and events will remain top spending categories:

• US spending on movies and live performances grew 31% YoY through September 2023, per Mastercard. This can be attributed to the popularity of Taylor Swift’s and Beyonce’s tours, as well as the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon.
• Mastercard expects this spending trend will continue into 2024 as economic indicators hold up better than expected and consumers continue to seek out must-see experiences.

We may therefore see more credit card programs offer perks in these categories to draw in cardholders. For example, American Express’s member week in October included limited-time offers like presales to live events and a virtual performance by Olivia Rodrigo.