The statistic: We expect TikTok Shop’s US ecommerce sales to reach $23.41 billion in 2026, a 48% increase YoY.

Sales at that level would give the social platform a larger US ecommerce business than Target, Costco, Best Buy, and Kroger—an impressive feat considering TikTok Shop only made its official debut in September 2023.

Behind the forecast: Despite having fewer social buyers than Facebook, TikTok has become a major driving force of social commerce. The platform’s algorithm has helped it become a highly effective product discovery and recommendation engine. On top of that, its unceasing efforts to get shoppable content into user feeds is helping to encourage impulse purchases and helping to normalize the idea of transacting on the social platform.