Executive Summary

The retail industry is undergoing a major transformation in ecommerce and brick-and-mortar. The era of inventory-led retail is ending, and the shift toward brands and the customer experience is emerging. Set against a backdrop of heightened economic uncertainty, we examine the changing fundamentals of the retail sector and the most important trends that will shape the year ahead.

How much will US consumers spend on retail and ecommerce in 2020?

We forecast a moderation in growth rates vs. previous years, with total retail sales expected to grow 2.0% to $5.574 trillion and ecommerce sales expected to grow 12.8% to $666.28 billion.

Which retailers will succeed, and which will struggle?

Amazon, Walmart, Target and other leaders are well-positioned for the year ahead, as are many of the direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands now expanding into brick-and-mortar. Department stores and other traditional mall-based retailers will continue to struggle.

Which innovations will reshape physical retail?

In brick-and-mortar, innovation in experiential and frictionless retail will begin to scale. The rise of click-and-collect, easy returns, mobile order-ahead and cashierless checkout will help streamline transactions. Meanwhile, physical “Retail as a Service” platforms will bring more digitally native brands to the masses through brick-and-mortar storefronts and experiences.

Which innovations will influence how consumers shop online?

Social commerce will evolve how consumers discover and shop for brands digitally with more shoppable content and a streamlined path to checkout. Digital installment plans will make ecommerce purchases more affordable without saddling consumers with added debt.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report looks at what to expect for the US retail and ecommerce markets in 2020, highlighting 10 key trends that will drive improvements in consumer behavior and retailer performance.

KEY STAT: Total US retail sales are expected to grow 2.0% to $5.574 trillion in 2020, representing a deceleration of the retail market amid rising economic uncertainty.