President Donald Trump has announced he will sign an executive order imposing a 10% global tariff just hours after the Supreme Court ruled that most of his tariff policies, which were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), are unconstitutional.

• The new duties are being invoked under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
• Trump also declared that all of the tariffs currently active under statutes known as Section 232 and Section 301 will remain “in full force and effect.”
• "The administration has made clear it sees alternative pathways to impose tariffs, including Sections 232 and 301," said our analyst Zak Stambor. "Those authorities come with stricter constraints and could face further legal challenges, but they reinforce that trade policy uncertainty isn’t going away anytime soon."

In the Supreme Court ruling, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that IEEPA "does not authorize the president to impose tariffs." The decision invalidates country-by-country "reciprocal" tariffs and a 25% levy on certain Canadian, Chinese, and Mexican goods, though steel and aluminum tariffs imposed under separate laws remain.

What does this mean? The 6-3 ruling is a small win for advertisers, retailers, and consumers.

• The court could require the government to start reimbursing duties that importers of record have already paid, providing relief to retailers and wholesalers, according to our “Live FAQ: How the US Supreme Court's Tariff Ruling Could Shift Retail and Search Growth” report.
• Lower import expenses, coupled with discounting fueled by those refunds, could boost consumer spending, particularly in discretionary categories that rely heavily on imports.
• A rollback of tariffs would also strengthen margins and cash flow for advertisers with significant exposure to imports.

"While the decision provides some near-term relief, it does not eliminate the broader trade policy uncertainty facing retailers and brands," said our analyst Zak Stambor. "We expect the ruling to create a modest tailwind for retail sales beginning this year, though that benefit will gradually fade by 2028."

EMARKETER now forecasts retail sales will grow 3.5% to $7.78 trillion this year, roughly $13 billion higher than our previous outlook.

"While that topline lift appears modest, the gains will likely be concentrated in import-heavy discretionary categories where pricing pressure has been most acute," said Stambor. "We expect more pronounced upside in computers and consumer electronics, apparel and footwear, and furniture and home furnishings."

But the behavioral shifts tariffs set in motion will likely persist. Consumers have grown more price-sensitive and selective, meaning retailers will still need to compete on value and any potential tailwinds may be short-lived.

The decision offered no detail or direction on how the refund process would be implemented, and acknowledged it could be a “mess,” suggesting that any meaningful relief may take time to materialize.

The bottom line: "Elevated costs for retailers, brands, and consumers are likely to persist despite this ruling," said Stambor.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.