As the 2025 holiday season gets underway, a pattern of measured momentum has defined the period for consumers and brands. Shoppers have been engaging early but spending deliberately, signaling confidence tempered by caution. For marketers, this moment offers a critical window to convert intent into action through thoughtful pacing, value-driven storytelling, and coordinated full-funnel investment.

A steady promotional cadence through the holiday season

Promotional activity has begun, but the defining theme is restraint. Early Black Friday campaigns started in early November, but most retailers held back their deepest discounts until mid-November. Rather than chasing short-term volume, brands are focusing on sustained engagement and margin protection—an approach that may strengthen performance as the season continues.

This discipline reflects a new normal in retail: a preference for balance over blitz. As holiday spending stretches across a longer calendar, strategic timing and smarter audience orchestration are becoming as valuable as deep discounts.

Consumers say one thing—and do another

Shoppers continue to show up despite headlines citing near record-low consumer sentiment. Visa’s most recent “Holiday Spending Outlook” reveals real consumer spending grew 2.7% YoY through late summer, even as confidence hit its lowest level since 2020. Nominal incomes remain stable, and consumers are expected to spend roughly 10% more on gifts than last year, though much of that increase reflects inflation rather than exuberance.

Shoppers are stretching budgets, seeking deals, and rewarding brands that deliver value and relevance. This duality—low confidence, steady spending—underscores the importance of empathy in messaging and precision in media investment.

Brands balance reach and efficiency across channels

Advertisers are coordinating. PMG’s portfolio trends show premium video and social lead top-funnel awareness efforts, while search, affiliate, and commerce drive efficiency to conversion. Meta and TikTok fuel cost-efficient engagement, and programmatic video is gaining momentum as brands invest in high-impact formats.

Performance indicators suggest consumers are actively browsing, setting the stage for conversion as deeper promotions arrive later in November. Season-long discipline and dynamic optimization will be key to unlocking holiday ROI.

Marketplace signals reflect broader discipline

A similar pattern is unfolding even within ecommerce giants. PMG’s Velocity data shows Amazon’s growth continues, but at a slower pace than last year amid shallower discounting. This moderation signals a shift toward sustainable demand generation and margin preservation, choices that may strengthen the platform’s performance through the season.

Ultimately, brands focusing on steady performance rather than short bursts of volume will be best positioned to capture pent-up demand as the season peaks.

Read more insights from PMG at Insights, Unwrapped.