Indonesia accounts for nearly half of the ecommerce in Southeast Asia, which is unsurprising given its size. We forecast $20.21 billion in digital sales for the country this year, a 15% increase over 2020. The rest of the regional markets we track—Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, and the Philippines—land far behind Indonesia, but their relative rankings accord with expectations given each country’s population, level of economic development, and per capita income in relation to one another.
The Philippines slightly underperforms, due at least partially to the idiosyncratic logistical challenges associated with trying to deliver ecommerce to roughly 2,000 populated islands. By contrast, tiny Singapore punches above its weight class—as usual—thanks to its high per capita income.
The growth story for each country is more divergent, and the coronavirus pandemic continues to heavily affect all six markets.