As the economy continues to put a strain on many household budgets, a number of consumers are planning to use annual holiday sales to stock up on everyday essentials, as well as buying gifts.

• US online holiday sales will hit a record $275.1 billion between November 1 and December 31, up 6.7% YoY, according to a September report from Adobe. 
• For retail marketers, though, eye opening figures sit deeper in the data. 

During Cyber Week, Adobe expects online sales of personal hygiene products to jump 150% over September levels, with clothing basics up 210% and household cleaning items up 49%. 

With discounts reaching as high as 30%, shoppers are using the seasonal sales to stuff their cupboards, as well as their stockings.

Treat essentials as a separate mission

This swing towards affordability demands a different playbook for retail marketers. John Wells, consumer and retail director at consultancy Baringa, says he has seen "a shift from isolated discounts to more bundling and multi-packs." 

Spending on essentials stays resilient, he notes, but shoppers are likely to trade up or down between brands. 

"Capturing shoppers in this case means winning share within a category while protecting margins rather than deep discounts," Wells says.

Purchase history should drive the offer, says Dave Buckingham, CEO of retail technology company Ecrebo. A shopper who regularly buys a particular personal-care product might respond to a larger pack, a complementary add-on, or an invitation to buy early. 

Bundles work, he says, "provided the products genuinely belong together," while "a collection of unrelated discounted products is simply noise." 

Buckingham also urges caution on blanket markdowns, since essentials already face margin pressure, and recommends measuring whether a promotion grew the basket "or merely discounted a purchase that would have happened anyway."

The messaging must change, too. 

"Someone buying laundry detergent and socks is not shopping for a gift. They are doing math," says Stephanie Harris, founder and CEO of affiliate marketing agency PartnerCentric. She advises retailers to lead with unit price, product longevity, and why buying now makes sense, and build bundles around how people actually replenish, “rather than around the promotional or seasonal calendars.”

Make order one the start of a relationship

Cyber Week is a customer-acquisition play for Mike Danford, owner and chief revenue officer at marketplace operator Adverio. 

"It takes roughly two to five orders before a consumables buyer becomes a durable repeat customer, and Cyber Week is order one," he says. Product pages should push "Subscribe and Save" options, and on Amazon, a coupon can be stacked on the subscription discount so that "the stock-up incentive and the subscription are within the same click."

Show up where shoppers now start

Adobe expects AI-driven traffic to US retail sites to rise 130% this season, while affiliates and social media are projected to gain 12% and 17% in share of revenue, respectively. Some 77% of those who have shopped with AI feel more confident in their purchase, with 69% saying they are less likely to return an item, according to a survey from Adobe.

Adobe's AI figure is "a large early warning signal" to Rafael Sarim Oezdemir, head of growth at eyewear retailer EZContacts. 

Shoppers are researching with AI, he says, so brands need content "that answers real questions clearly, not just content written to rank for keywords." His filter for partners: "Can a partner help a potential customer understand the value of a product they've never tried before?"

Danford says their data supports this. Across Adverio's brands, AI-assisted shopping clicks convert nearly 3 to 1 versus organic clicks. To test the returns benefit, he recommends tracking return rate by traffic source. 

Harris adds that affiliates and content partners can carry the value message through comparisons, buying guides, and deal roundups that answer "whether an offer is genuinely useful."

As the people who build the baskets do the math, the brands that lead with affordability and clear value, not holiday cheer alone, will best cater to buyer demand.

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