The data: Adobe Analytics projects US consumers will spend $26.3 billion online during Prime Day from June 23 to 26, up 9% YoY and $2.5 billion more than last year’s four-day event. That would make it the largest online shopping event in US history, surpassing the $26.05 billion combined total from Cyber Monday and Black Friday 2025, per Adobe.

Pulling Prime Day into June is also set to lift broader ecommerce performance. Adobe expects US online spending to reach $301.4 billion in Q2, up 11.9% YoY and marking the first $300 billion quarter outside the holiday season.

That outlook aligns with our forecast, which expects total Prime Day spending of $26.03 billion, including $15.68 billion on Amazon, which would be a gain of 7.1% YoY. Our Prime Day 2026 report also projects Amazon will capture its largest share since 2019, suggesting competing retailers will grow more slowly than the overall event despite their promotional efforts.

Zooming in: Consumers are using the event to stock up across key categories. Adobe expects kids’ apparel sales to spike 230% above June’s daily average, with lunch boxes and backpacks up 215% and 185%, respectively, as parents pull forward back-to-school purchases.

At the same time, shoppers are taking advantage of discounts on big-ticket items. Spending on refrigerators and freezers is expected to rise 185%, power tools 155%, and washers and dryers 140%.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is also playing a larger role. Adobe expects BNPL to drive $2.04 billion in spending, up 5.5% YoY and accounting for 7.8% of total Prime Day sales.

Implications for retailers and brands: While both our forecast and Adobe’s point to strong consumer demand, the rise in BNPL highlights underlying budget pressure. Consumers are still spending, but they are increasingly managing cash flow.

Retailers that prominently feature BNPL at checkout—especially in big-ticket categories like appliances and electronics—may be better positioned to capture that demand.

Go further: Read our Prime Day 2026 report.