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Marcus Johnson (00:00):

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(00:28):

Hey, gang, it's Wednesday, August 6th. Suzy, Sky, and listeners, welcome to Reimagining Retail, an eMarketer podcast made possible by Awin. I'm Marcus, your host for today. Joining me for the conversation, we have two people, let's meet them. Vice President of Content heading up our retail desk based in New York, it's Suzy Davidkhanian.

Suzy Davidkhanian (00:46):

Thanks so much for having me.

Marcus Johnson (00:48):

Of course. And we have with us our Principle Retail Analyst living down in Austin, Sky Canaves.

Sky Canaves (00:54):

Hey, Marcus. How's it going?

Marcus Johnson (00:55):

Hello there. Very good. How are you?

Sky Canaves (00:58):

Great, thanks. Sorry, I just lagged. I just lagged.

Marcus Johnson (01:02):

You just what?

Suzy Davidkhanian (01:04):

There was a little lag.

Sky Canaves (01:04):

I had lag.

Marcus Johnson (01:04):

Oh, you did?

Suzy Davidkhanian (01:04):

We can do that as a-

Sky Canaves (01:04):

We can do that again.

Marcus Johnson (01:04):

Oh, okay.

Sky Canaves (01:04):

We can do that again.

Marcus Johnson (01:10):

No, no, no. We'll power through. Suzy didn't even ask, so the fact that it took you five seconds to answer, Sky, you're still way out in front.

Suzy Davidkhanian (01:19):

Thank God it's not a game.

Marcus Johnson (01:20):

Yeah, you've lost already.

Suzy Davidkhanian (01:22):

Lost. I lost before we started.

Marcus Johnson (01:24):

You did, indeed. Today's real topic, how the holiday shopping calendar has evolved/is evolving.

(01:36):

All right, "Summerween spreads as Walmart mirrors Michael's early Halloween play," writes our Zak Stambor. He explains that Walmart has begun rolling out Summer Frights Halloween displays in about 1000 US stores, featuring quirky early season items like watermelon Jack-o'-lanterns to tap into consumers growing appetite for playful off-season Halloween décor, which has been gaining traction on TikTok and Instagram.

(02:04):

Suzy, Summerween, is it here to stay?

Suzy Davidkhanian (02:07):

Okay, wait. Before we talk about Summerween, I think we need to talk about something a little bit broader.

Marcus Johnson (02:12):

Talk to me.

Suzy Davidkhanian (02:13):

In that we're not talking about holidays like Christmas and Hanukkah, we're talking about market share events, or events where all the retailers can get around it across the entire calendar. That's everything from the Hallmark-style manmade ones, like Valentine's Day.

Marcus Johnson (02:33):

Yes.

Suzy Davidkhanian (02:33):

To the promo-driven July 4th ones that everybody's participating in. Because then there's also the Amazon Prime.

Marcus Johnson (02:43):

Right.

Suzy Davidkhanian (02:43):

Which was an original retailer even, like the Kohl's Days, or Kohl's Cashback Days, or lowest price of the season that has turned into what we are now calling holiday that everybody participates in. I think those are all really important for a retailer to understand the nuances, especially between emotional gift giving versus cultural moments like the, back to Summerween, these cultural moments that are not an extension of Halloween, so Halloween is now starting in July. It's a separate thing.

Marcus Johnson (03:17):

Yeah. Normally, I'm furious when you don't answer the question, but I think we should have actually started here with the definition of what are we talking about. I made a mini list myself, it's kind of the ones that you've touched on, but I tried to break these out. I'm going to spit these at you, and then, Sky, I'll turn to you. You can tell me what you think we should be including in this conversation.

(03:34):

I've got the bank holidays, so that's going to be MLK Day, President's Day, Memorial, Juneteenth, Independence Day, Labor Day, Columbus Day, Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas. Then you've got the big made up co-opted shopping ones, the Valentine's Day, the Easter, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Halloween. Then you've got the smaller ones that people still buy things for, St. Patrick's Day, Father's Day, Mother's Day, Small Business Saturday, Green Monday. Then you've got those retailer invented ones, Amazon's Prime Day, Wayfair's Way Day, Target's Deal Days, Walmart's Holiday Deals, et cetera.

(04:01):

What are we talking about, which one of these? All of them?

Sky Canaves (04:03):

I think so, all of the above.

Marcus Johnson (04:05):

Okay.

Sky Canaves (04:06):

They're all opportunities for retailers to boost sales.

Marcus Johnson (04:10):

Yes.

Sky Canaves (04:10):

Increase shopping activity. And in some cases, there are strong cultural or emotional associations around them, around gift giving. I've seen, in my lifetime, some of these events evolve from fairly cultural ones into ones that are a lot more retail-driven. I'm thinking about how Halloween has extended from a single day into now a whole possibly month of festivities. Now there's a summer version of it.

Marcus Johnson (04:39):

Or season.

Sky Canaves (04:40):

Even Easter, when I was growing up, we put some candy in a basket and called it a day. Nowadays, a lot of parents are making even more elaborate baskets with big presents, and toys, and all sorts of things. It becomes a much more consumer-oriented event.

Suzy Davidkhanian (04:58):

Well, I think that brings a really good point. There's these community moments and with social, everything is becoming bigger, and more like take pictures and talk about it. Retailers are capitalizing on that, but they're also creating these other moments. We are now talking about Summerween, which is completely different from Halloween, but not. But then, there are these weird extensions, like Galentine's Day and Friendsgiving, which is just another hopefully authentic way for a brand to get into another moment in time. Ultimately, trying to drive sales.

(05:34):

If you think about all the holidays that you said, every month has one or two things that help a retailer plan ahead and think about how to drive traffic to their website or to their store that is separate from the seasonality of summer, spring, winter, fall clothing.

Marcus Johnson (05:55):

All right, Suzy. Summerween, is it here to stay?

Suzy Davidkhanian (05:59):

Well, I think it's been here for so long, it's just recent that the retailers are jumping on it. Apparently, it started in 2012 from a show called Gravity Falls. It was really more of a subculture niche thing. Then in 2020s ... It's so weird to say that. In the 2020s with social media, it became a little bit more viral and a little bit broader.

Marcus Johnson (06:22):

Okay.

Suzy Davidkhanian (06:22):

Then last year, in 2024, it hit it big. But if a retailer tries to pretend like it's Halloween early, they've missed the mark on this new holiday because it's really about decorations, fans of horror movies, people who love the genre. It's not about dressing up in costumes and having candy.

Marcus Johnson (06:45):

Okay. Apparently, it's not just shopping for Halloween in the summer, people are also buying Christmas gifts as well. "Forget Black Friday, economic anxiety is leading to Christmas in July," writes Kailyn Rhone of The New York Times. She points out that folks are starting their holiday shopping earlier this year using summer sales from retailers like Amazon and Walmart to save time and money. She was pointing to Catherine Spruill in the space, saying that they've been stockpiling gifts for the December holidays since June, hunting for summer sales across big box retailers and then stashing them for later. Ms. Rhone from the Times saying that, "Black Friday no longer marks the beginning of the holiday retail season, as a growing number of shoppers and retailers are embracing what's being called Christmas in July." Macy's, once such example, running a Black Friday in July sales event for five days starting July 23rd, and a Christmas in July sale on July 25th for the first time, offering holiday and general merchandise.

(07:41):

Sky, in your opinion, what's the earliest you could see the majority of people starting their holiday shopping? Because this is some people, but you can argue that you need to get to critical mass before this becomes the norm.

Sky Canaves (07:54):

Right. I think most shoppers are still going to start in the fall months because that's just when it makes sense for most people. But we are seeing more shopping taking place earlier, that's been an ongoing trend and it's picking up again this year. Civic Science noted an uptick of about five percentage points in the number of consumers or the share of consumers who had started their holiday shopping by July 1st to more than 20% this year from last year.

(08:25):

I think big sale events like Amazon's extended Prime Day at the beginning of July adds to that impetus of a good time to stock up. This year is so unusual because shoppers are so concerned about the price increases that are on the horizon, and retailers have pulled up so much inventory. They don't want that sitting around and take the chance that they're going to have to mark it down so much more later in the season when consumers feel like they have less money to spend.

Marcus Johnson (08:54):

Yeah.

Sky Canaves (08:54):

They're pushing the sales now and I think more shoppers are biting.

Marcus Johnson (08:59):

Yeah, that Civic Science research I thought was very telling because 20% is a fair amount of people.

Sky Canaves (09:04):

Yeah.

Marcus Johnson (09:04):

Some other research pointing to the shift. 62% of US adults starting their shopping for holiday gifts before November begins. According to ESW, 37% as early as September. Then some more research from Civic Science, 50% of US holiday shoppers starting before Thanksgiving. That was last year and that was up six points for the year before that.

(09:25):

Suzy, Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst for Bankrate, thanks COVID-19 is responsible for pushing the timeline up even earlier because then we had supply chain issues and concerns over not getting gifts in time. What do you make of buying Christmas gifts in July? First, it sounded kind of crazy, but the more I think about it, especially this piece from Ms. Rhone, it argues that why not? Black Friday hasn't always existed. A BBC article noting that the phrase came from police officers in the city of Philadelphia describing the chaos of the Friday after Thanksgiving, as people rushed to the shops to buy Christmas presents. Then in the '80s, retailers and businesses took it and started using it as a phrase to suggest or talk about, define how they've started to turn a profit. But we don't have to buy gifts then. We didn't before. Why not the summer?

Suzy Davidkhanian (10:21):

It's such an interesting question. I don't think it has anything to do with COVID. If anything started the buying it in July, it was when Amazon started doing their Prime Day.

Marcus Johnson (10:28):

Right.

Suzy Davidkhanian (10:29):

This is not a new thing, Black Friday in July. I think it depends who you're buying gifts for. If you're buying gifts for someone that is younger who's looking for the latest, greatest, coolest thing, then you might be waiting. If, as a gift giver, you are a thoughtful person, that you see something and you're like, "This would be perfect for so-and-so," then you might even do that in March because it won't matter so much about what's trending, but it'll be about that perfect gift for that person that you're buying for.

(10:56):

I don't think that there's any correlation between COVID and things moving earlier. The only correlation could potentially be budgets were a little bit tighter, inventory was a little bit strained, and we're starting to see that again now. That could be the correlation, but I don't think it has anything to do with the holidays and a net new concept of shopping earlier.

Marcus Johnson (11:18):

Yeah.

Sky Canaves (11:19):

Well, I think the COVID challenges did create that new October sale period, which is now firmly entrenched in the holiday or retail calendar because Amazon had to delay its 2020 Prime Day until October.

Marcus Johnson (11:34):

Good point.

Sky Canaves (11:35):

Then that sparked the idea of, hey, having a big October Prime member sale, which is now taking place, we expect it to take place again and really be a big boost for Amazon and other retailers as well. Although it's bigger impact on the holiday shopping calendar is a little in question because it seems like at least last year, a lot of consumers used these events to stock up on essentials rather than necessarily buying the hot gift items that they're looking for.

Suzy Davidkhanian (12:05):

Well, these events when they're tent pole, when they're the holidays, and here I'm thinking about Christmas and Hanukkah, or back to school, or maybe to a smaller extent Valentine's Day, and there's an emotional connection as a gift giver or gift receiver who's giving a little list of things that you'd like to get for that period. Or back to school's not really gift giving necessarily, but it is about making sure that you have the right thing for your kid who's going to school. I think that's really different than July 4th sale or President's Day, where it's just value. It's truly promotional.

(12:42):

Amazon Prime fits into that. It's truly a promotional component. If you are buying random household goods as a gift, then that's a good time to buy it because they'll definitely be on sale.

Marcus Johnson (12:54):

People only have so much money. Even though people, we do see retail sales going up pretty much every year, slightly more dollars, Zak was writing that "Summerween pulls some of that spending forward and gives budget-conscious shoppers a playful reason to open their wallets even if they're feeling spooked," well played, "by the economy."

(13:16):

Sky, how much of a concern is there that this is just pulling money from the spending that they would have done in October for Halloween, or from other holidays?

Sky Canaves (13:27):

I think it's more around, with each holiday, we see retailers stretching out the sales and promotional calendar longer so that the marketing starts earlier. Even the big sales, like Prime Day, are lasting longer. That's not so much pulling money from other holidays as much as moving it around and spreading it out.

(13:46):

I think when we look at the traditional holiday shopping season, which in our forecast is November and December, one reason why we're expecting weaker sales growth this year is because more shopping activity is taking place earlier. I think for example, if you have someone on your list that you've got a big ticket item for and you think the price might go up by the time November or December rolls around, more likely to buy it now or during the recent Prime Day sales than in that two-month window that we traditionally think of as the holiday shopping season.

Suzy Davidkhanian (14:20):

I think when you think about the other holidays, you are seeing the stores merchandised a little bit earlier than in the past, that's for sure.

Sky Canaves (14:30):

Yeah.

Suzy Davidkhanian (14:30):

But to Sky's point, I don't think that the money is moving around. It's not like just because Valentine's Day is overlapping with Easter chocolate because now things are so, so much longer than before the windows that you're not going to buy a heart and you're going to buy a bunny instead. You know what I mean? A lot of the holidays feel like they're overlapping more, but I think it's partly because in a, for example, pharmacy or a drug store, there are seasonal end caps. It's just easier to go from one to the next and sometimes there's a little bit of overlap if there's extra inventory than it truly was meant to be moving money from one holiday to the other.

Marcus Johnson (15:08):

Is this going to be a rising overlapping tide lifts all boats? Do we think that there won't be any holidays that lose out in the shuffle because of this?

Suzy Davidkhanian (15:19):

That's a tough one. I think retail might lose out if people are becoming more and more cost conscious and trading down, and foregoing holidays because it's manmade or it didn't meet their needs of community, or fill in the gaps. I don't know, I've never done Galentine's Day, I'm not sure that I ever would. I have some amazing girlfriends, but it's just not part of my world. If more and more of these types of holidays don't inspire people, maybe we'll lose out, but I don't think individually.

Sky Canaves (15:54):

As we get more of these retailer-driven shopping events, that might pull away from some of those calendar holidays that are marketed as shopping or sales periods. I'm thinking of Memorial Day, for example, which traditionally is a time for people maybe to refresh their wardrobes, or buy outdoor patio furniture, or grills. Now, if they know that there's going to be a huge Prime Day sale event six weeks later, they might hold out and wait. Or you'll see an overlap between Fourth of July sales and the Prime Day or Prime-adjacent sales from competing retailers. That might pull away from some Fourth of July marketing around sales.

Marcus Johnson (16:38):

Yeah. Any concern that consumers just won't ever want to pay full price for things because they're always going to be looking for a deal?

Sky Canaves (16:47):

Yeah, I think as there are more sales and consumers have them in mind, they wait to buy things. We see retailers like Amazon and others launching more category-specific sales. In addition to the July Prime Day and the October Prime Day, Amazon also has a big spring sale which is not limited to Prime members. They've launched a bunch of category-specific events around beauty, pets, and books that also take place in the spring. If consumers know that these events are coming, they are more likely to wait to stock up when they do happen.

Marcus Johnson (17:21):

Yeah. What holiday do we think ... You mentioned Prime Day started as a one-day event 10 years ago, now it spans over four days. What holiday, Suzy, do you think will most likely bleed into a different month, or is there a holiday like a Prime Day that you can see becoming a week, becoming two weeks, becoming an entire month potentially?

Suzy Davidkhanian (17:44):

I think we're starting to see all of the holidays try and take up more space. It might not move into a completely different month, but you will see the merchandising and the marketing bleed out longer. I don't think anything's going to get replaced necessarily, but I do think retailers really need to think about their strategy and think about holidays as either a branding play or a performance play, and to really think about that emotional connection versus the purely promotional connection. I think each retailer might play the holiday differently, but I think they're all here to stay in some capacity.

Marcus Johnson (18:22):

Yeah.

Sky Canaves (18:22):

Well, I think of Halloween. When I was a kid growing up, it really was just that one day or night. Now with a daughter of my own, it's more like a season. We have weeks of different events from her school, and then of course ending with the big night itself. Then she doesn't want to wear the same costume for every event.

Marcus Johnson (18:41):

Oh, good.

Sky Canaves (18:42):

We have multiple costumes. Yes, there is definitely more spending, there's more candy consumption taking place across these weeks versus one night. That's another way where sales will increase, but not just because there's more marketing leading up to that event, but because the whole period has been extended. Yeah.

Suzy Davidkhanian (19:04):

Yeah.

Marcus Johnson (19:04):

Yeah.

Suzy Davidkhanian (19:06):

The other thing, which we didn't really touch on and it's maybe too big of a topic for us here. But don forget, when you have these moments in time and you're driving traffic to your store or to your website, if you also have a retail media network, you're also able to capitalize. It's like you've planned ahead to drive traffic, so now can start selling ads and fueling that business in a different way.

Marcus Johnson (19:28):

Sky, I love that your daughter's like, "I won't be caught dead in a Captain Marvel costume two nights in a row." Are you kidding me?

Sky Canaves (19:36):

I think it might be both of us.

Suzy Davidkhanian (19:37):

Aw.

Sky Canaves (19:38):

I want her to enjoy Halloween and have a full experience.

Marcus Johnson (19:43):

Yeah.

Sky Canaves (19:43):

It's not necessarily she needs more costumes, it's just that we're creative and we come up with different ideas.

Marcus Johnson (19:49):

Yeah, I like it. Final question here. What small daily holiday I'm calling these has the most potential to catch fire? When we're talking about, well, today happens to be National Day for Play. But for example, this month, you have National Book Lovers Day, August 9th. Middle Child Day on the 12th, where finally we can get some attention, the kind of attention we deserve. And National Dog Day, August 26th.

(20:16):

Suzy, which small daily holiday do you see becoming even bigger?

Suzy Davidkhanian (20:23):

You picked some good ones.

Marcus Johnson (20:23):

Thank you.

Suzy Davidkhanian (20:24):

Because I think the ones that are more likely to turn into a retail event are the ones where there is some sort of either cultural play, an emotional push, that you can have strong visuals around, some strong associations that have the opportunity to potentially go viral, play on words. Maybe a little bit of competition. I was thinking about National Coffee Day, which I'm sorry, I don't know what day that is. But Starbucks fighting against, I say fighting in a very nice way of course ... Starbucks and Dunkin' Donuts at magical branding words. But I think you can't just jump on a national day without thinking about your packaging, your merchandising. You have to be all in for it to work.

Marcus Johnson (21:10):

Yeah. Sky?

Sky Canaves (21:12):

One I've been excited about since I was a child is International Children's Day. I think retailers have really missed out on that opportunity. Not just for kids, but for adults as well. Now, it is more I think of a socialist holiday, kind of like International Women's Day and the International Labor Day, May 1st. Maybe that's tinged its potential.

(21:34):

But in China, those are big marketing opportunities. Children's Day in particular is not just for kids now, but it's also for Gen Z to indulge in nostalgia. A lot of brands have capitalized on that. One example I remember from a couple of years ago was a popular Chinese liquor brand created a boozy ice cream. It may have been a collaboration, too. It was a huge hit and took off. You also have all the kid-alt brands, like Pop Mart, that's best known for the Labubu Doll craze. Those brands also market around the International Children's Day. Not just to children, but it can be a holiday for everyone.

Marcus Johnson (22:14):

10 points! Suzy, you were right at the start of the episode, Sky did win. Anyway, that's all we got time for.

Suzy Davidkhanian (22:21):

There's no game.

Marcus Johnson (22:21):

That's what you thought.

Sky Canaves (22:23):

Maybe Summerween is our version of that, where kids and adults can enjoy a made up holiday and indulge in more nostalgia in the summer as well.

Marcus Johnson (22:31):

Indeed. An excellent note to end on. Thank you so much to my guests for hanging out with me today. Thank you to Suzy.

Suzy Davidkhanian (22:37):

Thanks for having me back.

Marcus Johnson (22:38):

And of course, to Sky.

Sky Canaves (22:40):

Thank you. My pleasure.

Marcus Johnson (22:41):

Thanks to the whole editing crew and to everyone for listening to Reimagining Retail, an eMarketer podcast made possible by Awin. I hope to see you on Friday for the Behind the Numbers show, where we'll be discussing Google.