Consumers skip ads but not rewards. Fetch drives performance with 12.5M+ monthly users and 11.5M+ receipts scanned daily, capturing 88% of household spend. Your brand becomes the reward earning real engagement, verified purchases, and lasting loyalty. Fetch: America’s Rewards App. Where brands are the center of joy. Learn more at business.fetch.com.

Marcus Johnson (00:00):

Consumers skip ads, but they don't skip rewards. Of course not. Fetch drives performance with over 12.5 million monthly active users and over 11.5 million receipts scanned daily that captures close to 90% of household spend. Your brand becomes the reward, earning real engagement, verified purchases and loyalty. Fetch America's Rewards app, where brands are the center of joy. Hey gang, it's Monday, October 13th. Ross, Zach and listeners, welcome to Behind the Numbers, an EMARKETER video podcast made possible by Fetch Rewards. I'm Marcus, and joining me for today's conversation, we have senior digital media analyst living just north of New York City, it's Ross Benes.

Ross Benes (00:48):

Hey Marcus.

Marcus Johnson (00:49):

Hey, fella. And we also joined by senior forecasting analyst living live out in Salt Lake City, Utah, of course. It's Zach Goldner.

Zach Goldner (00:58):

Thank you, Marcus and welcome to soup season.

Marcus Johnson (01:01):

It is soup... Well-

Zach Goldner (01:04):

October is the official start of soup season.

Marcus Johnson (01:07):

It's still 90 degrees here in Chicago, so hopefully soon.

Zach Goldner (01:12):

Cool it down. Put some ice in that.

Marcus Johnson (01:15):

Today's fact. Nicholas Alkemade fell out of a plane and was fine. Englishman, Nicholas Alkemade was a tail gunner during World War Two and survived a fall from 18,000 feet without a parachute. He was shot down out of the sky. His parachute caught fire and so he jumped rather than going down with the plane and landed on fir trees and thick snow escaping the incident with just a broken leg. I still don't believe this one is real. I was searching for hours to try to verify this one. It seems legitimate, somehow.

Zach Goldner (02:06):

I need that kind of milk he was having. Those are some good bones.

Marcus Johnson (02:11):

I know, forget soup. Oh, my... Whole milk is where it's at, apparently. Anyway, today's real topic, how much traditional media still matters? What is that, 2% for Americans? Is that what you call whole milk?

Zach Goldner (02:28):

Raw. Raw milk is where all the Americans are talking about these days.

Ross Benes (02:30):

Oh, boy.

Marcus Johnson (02:31):

Oh, dear.

Zach Goldner (02:32):

Don't have to open up that can of worms on this podcast.

Marcus Johnson (02:37):

Today's real topic, how much traditional media still matters. All right, whilst digital ad spending takes over America, traditional media ad spending still commands 20% of the pie or close to a hundred billion dollars. That's TV, that's radio, that's print, that's out-of-home, things like that. TV, we'll start there. It's the biggest part of the traditional slice. You wouldn't be at fault for thinking that streaming TV has already swallowed linear TV whole because pay TV household numbers, pay TV households fell below 50% for the first time this year, according to Zach's forecasting crew and Nielsen's Gauge says that time spent watching streaming services overtook linear share in May of this year.

(03:29):

The split is now 46% streaming and 40, basically 2% to linear in terms of where people are spending their time with the television. The rest is other. Yet despite what the viewership numbers are telling us, our analyst, Marissa Jones, points out in an article that CTV will soon command just one third of total TV ad spend. So CTV plus linear, just one third of that proportion or portion, not proportion. So proportion of the portion. According to Madison and Wall, we forecast that CTV, including political advertising, will be closer to 40% of overall TV ad spend, but still, the minority. We're playing Blame Pie. Ross, we'll start with you. What's currently-

Ross Benes (04:12):

Blame Pie?

Marcus Johnson (04:14):

Oh, my goodness.

Ross Benes (04:15):

I might have missed [inaudible 00:04:18].

Marcus Johnson (04:17):

I had a suspicion you hadn't read the brief. Okay, we're going to play mystery question, where Ross is going to tell us by somehow on the spot coming up with basically, I want your reasons as to what's currently holding CTV ad spend back and if they could fit into a pie chart, that would be cool. So if it's like 100% of the reason is this or 50% of the reason is this, 50% of the reason is that that, that is Blame Pie-

Ross Benes (04:47):

Okay.

Marcus Johnson (04:47):

... which is Ross is now just learning about live. What's currently holding-

Ross Benes (04:51):

The audience might've liked the explainer, you know?

Marcus Johnson (04:54):

Yeah, it's for that, good save.

Ross Benes (04:56):

Yeah.

Marcus Johnson (04:56):

What's currently holding CTV ad spending back from crossing this 50% mark, Ross?

Ross Benes (05:01):

Okay. Well, I'm going to say, 40% each goes to ad loads and ad free viewing. So that's 80% of the total. So if you look at total time spent with linear compared to total time spent with CTV, very similar, like you just said, citing that Nielsen data. But on ad loads, TV, linear TV is still the vast majority, like over two thirds, probably closer to four fifths of the total ad load delivery because linear TV is 15 minutes of ads per hour, everyone gets ads. CTV, depending on the service, could be a few minutes to maybe 10 minutes per hour, large portions of people not on ad plans. So people just aren't getting as many ads, even if it's being consumed as much and that's probably a good thing for user experience.

(05:48):

If it was 15 minutes of ads per hour on every service you use no matter what, it wouldn't be as popular as it is and people would probably abandon it for other stuff. And then the remaining 20% or so, I would say is a combination of advertisers concerned about suitability and measurement issues. So if you're on YouTube especially, there's a lot of different types of content and your ad can appear against linear TV. You have a much more precise control, like you know the types of programs that are going to be on like CBS and ABC and Fox. If you go on some of these online services, who knows where your ad may be, especially if you're buying through a third-party programmatic in a large aggregated way.

Marcus Johnson (06:36):

Mm-hmm. All right. 40, 40, 20. Zach, how does that sound to you?

Zach Goldner (06:42):

Yeah, I think Ross hit it on the head about ad load. For me, I'd say that's 50% of the reason. I think you've got much more eyeballs on CTV, which is not being monetized, whether it's people going through Netflix, Disney+ and ad free tiers there as well. The strong majority of CTV viewers are watch advertising video on demand as a portion of it, but that could just be one service or another. So there's a lot of different platforms they could use that don't have advertising. The second one is sports. I put 40% of it being towards sports. You have more sports that are migrating over from traditional linear over to streaming, and sure, you're going to see it be on dual platforms for now, both being on streaming platforms and linear channels. But as the years go on, we're going to see more and more events occur exclusively on that of streaming platforms those-

Marcus Johnson (07:44):

Really quickly, sports, the streaming of the sports viewers, the ones who are watching on streaming and the ones who are watching on linear, I think sports did overtake linear a year or two ago, but the shares, it's still kind of 60/40, right? It hasn't become like 90/10 or-

Zach Goldner (08:00):

Yes.

Marcus Johnson (08:01):

... so at that point, we did cross that milestone, but there still are a lot of people who are watching, tens of millions of people who are watching sports on linear.

Zach Goldner (08:09):

And we're hearing more and more examples of events that are going to be exclusive towards that streaming. It's Netflix or NFL+ or you're going to have more events that occur just on Peacock, examples of that nature too or those events to command much higher CPM and pricing too. And then 10% of it, still goes to political TV ad spending. So I think that's a really big one too, that political skews much more towards that traditional outlets than that of streaming or digital. We're going to see that shift very much so. But historically-

Ross Benes (08:51):

Yeah, I overlooked the political because I think that's not on an annual basis necessarily, but you're totally right. Local old school TV is still the mechanism for much of that spend.

Zach Goldner (09:06):

Yeah, so political TV ads during the election year account for 10% of traditional TV ad spending, or if you look at traditional TV political ad spending, that still accounts for roughly 60% of total political ad spending. So still the majority of political ad spending is occurring on traditional outlets, now is as of 2024. And we have seen that share go from 68% of political ad spending, going from traditional TV, down to 57%. And I'm sure in our next forecast when we come out of 2026, that share will continue to move over and go over towards CTV where you can target on the state and local level as well, make smarter choices with your target.

Marcus Johnson (09:57):

Sounds good to me. Yeah, some really good pie charts there with some really good reasons as to what's holding CTV ad spending back. That said, we do expect CTV ad spend to reach 50% of all TV ad spend by 2027, so just in a couple of years. So TV ad spend still 12% of total US media ad spending. That is $50 billion. There's still a lot of dollars there. I want to ask the gents about out-of-home and print, but I'll quickly tell you the radio part of traditional media, because still $10 billion still goes towards radio ads in America. Our Marissa Jones writing that radio maintained a 64% share of total time spent listening to audio, sorry, ad supported audio ahead of podcasts, 19% ad supported streaming audio, 14% in ad supported satellite radio with just three. Why is radio still holding its own? Because it still has the audience size.

(10:58):

66% of drivers listen to AM, FM radio. It's over three times as many who listen to music library streaming like Spotify, 20% according to Odyssey. However, Marissa does point out that there's a growing relevance of podcast ads saying they maintain high penetration across key demographics and are effective at driving action. She points to nearly nine in 10 Americans taking some action after hearing a podcast ad, and four in 10 having made a purchase from a brand advertised on a podcast. But radio is still very much holding its own because when you get in the car, that's a lot of the time what people are listening to and still a lot of people drive. So that's the radio piece. Wanted to get through that quickly because it's still kind of the same old story but still a very important part of traditional media.

(11:45):

Now out-of-home, just over $9 billion go to out-of-home ads in the US, nearly as many as radio, our senior director of briefings, Jeremy Goldman writes that out-of-home advertising is experiencing a renewed sense of purpose as marketers re-evaluate their immediate priorities and question if being performance obsessed is the best strategy. Out-of-home is certainly trying to innovate and Adweek piece from Kathryn Lundstrom points to video ads on gas pumps, which led to 12% more foot traffic into Applebee's restaurants according to a GSTB and IPG's Manga. Robert Klara of the same publication, points to out-of-home examples this summer where NYX-owned Schmushy, it's hard to say, used scratch and sniff billboards to promote its lip balm scents as well as Selena Gomez's Rare Beauty company doing the same. Zach, I'll start with you. What's primarily responsible for driving the near 3% growth in out-of-home ad spending this year in America?

Zach Goldner (12:43):

Yeah. So I think the first thing to mention, 2025 is a non [inaudible 00:12:47] year. So even this 3% is some of a deceleration, but what we are primarily seeing in the outdoor space right now is growth from digital out-of-home. A lot of that is being propped up right now by programmatic ad spending too, OAAA, the agency that covers outdoor advertising, has quantified that coming from, that being a major growth factor there as well. So a few points of why programmatic is leading to incremental ad spending, is because it helps advertisers be able to track their measurement a little bit better.

(13:26):

ROI becomes measurable and they'll lead to more ad dollars flowing in, it leads to higher efficiency, lower wasted inventory as well. And it helps advertisers be able to shift their budgets from underperforming screens to better ones rather than quickly. Lastly, I also want to talk about who is leading that growth this year. OAAA mentioned that tech and direct to consumer brands have been some of the real growth engines and some of the heaviest investment has been from players like Apple, Amazon, HBO, and Netflix, who are some of the biggest advertisers driving digital growth, but they're leaning on out-of-home as well, to really continue to lean in on their brand storytelling and awareness.

Marcus Johnson (14:12):

Ross, how about for you [inaudible 00:14:15]?

Ross Benes (14:15):

Well, digital is the growth for sure, in out-of-home, but it's still primarily a traditional medium and maybe not so much for this next year that we're talking about, but if I just look at it in general, over the course of the last five years, something that's really helped stabilize that industry as it underwent change is the strength of billboards. Now billboards have always been the most common form of outdoor advertising, more so than PlaySpace or transit, any of these other categories, but their share of total out-of-home spending has grown since the pandemic, and it's pretty steady and most out-of-home is still traditional.

(14:52):

So the meat and potatoes of this industry is still old school billboards because not everywhere in the United States or the rest of the world, for that matter, is dense like New York or London. It doesn't always make sense to have digital signage everywhere and that traditional side while it's shrinking, it's held up much better than print advertising or traditional television has, which I've seen pretty steep free falls in the last decade. So it's been a pretty resilient form of advertising, even if the growth is coming from the digital side.

Zach Goldner (15:28):

Mm-hmm. Yeah, it has been relatively stable in terms of growth for traditional, but if we do look at digital out-of-home, back in 2020, digital out-of-home only made up 26% of that whole space.

Ross Benes (15:41):

Well, in 2020 is when everyone digital got hurt the worst too, because it was the easiest to pull out. You can't rip a billboard off the wall, but you can turn your sign off of a office kiosk.

Zach Goldner (15:52):

I was going to say, but then this year, we're going to see that it's going to reach 36%. So the penetration has moved 10% points more towards digital in the last five years. So yes, traditional is maintaining its gains. It's not hemorrhaging print, but we are seeing the additional incremental ad dollars coming from the digital side. And as a lot of our reports talk about as well, we'll see more in-store retail media too as the gas station TVs and other digital space in in-store outlets.

Marcus Johnson (16:29):

Mm-hmm. Next stop, print. Publications turn to old style products to appeal to readers and stand out in digital media landscapes, writes Alexandra Bruell of the Wall Street Journal. She explains that when The Onion's new owners acquired the satirical publication a year ago, they bet on a dying breed, print subscribers and it is working. Miss Bruell notes that the publication has a new deal to sell its papers at Barnes and Noble, and is expecting about $6 million in revenue this year, up from a little under 2 million in early 2024. The chief executive, Ben Collins, aims to turn a profit next year.

(17:12):

There are plenty of examples of media companies firing up the presses again. The journal, article points to publications such as Complex, High Times and Tablet that have rolled out print editions in recent years to stand out in a digital content space, crowded with creators, videos and podcasts. The Economist points to Playboy's new annual edition. Life Magazine, relaunching fortnightly print editions. NME and many others releasing [inaudible 00:17:39] after several years as digital-only titles. Ross, in spite of this, print advertising, which is about 5.5 billion dollar ad business today, it's not nothing, will get cuts by 40% by 2029 according to our forecasting team. Ross, can these prints, new prints initiatives, stem the bleeding?

Ross Benes (18:01):

No, they can't stem the bleeding. They're nice, niche operations that are good for those particular businesses and good for getting those brands noticed because print is pretty great that even if you're not buying it, you're seeing that journalism brand front and center. Think of the old school newsstands. Even if you didn't buy Time Magazine, you would see it as you're walking by it. So there's value in print and having it out there in the world. But I don't think it's going to be a direct money maker. These initiatives are nice for these companies, but the industry trend is still going to be what it is and that's downward.

Marcus Johnson (18:41):

Zach, agree?

Zach Goldner (18:43):

Yeah, wholeheartedly agree with Ross there. It's niche. You're seeing the entire distribution infrastructure that made print viable. It's collapsed over the years too. A loss of newsstand distributors, grocery stores of fewer and fewer rack space and postal rates have also gone up to the point where subscriptions are less-

Ross Benes (19:06):

Printing paper's gone up too.

Zach Goldner (19:07):

[inaudible 00:19:08]. Yep, yeah. Inflation going up. So don't find there to be a really efficient way to deliver at the same scale that used to be at. But when we talk about Playboy relaunching, I don't think it's crazy to think that, sorry. I don't think it's crazy to think that Playboy could benefit from the tightening net on digital adult content, considering that over 40% of the Americans [inaudible 00:19:36] states that require age verification for pornography. I think that you are going to see print adult magazines maybe take off again. No, there won't be much advertising coming from that space, but it'd give people a sense of [inaudible 00:19:55] and sense of refuge as well. So just interesting tid bit there.

Ross Benes (20:00):

Maybe for the old viewers, I feel like the younger ones will just get more savvy with their VPN.

Zach Goldner (20:04):

Use their VPN.

Ross Benes (20:05):

Yeah.

Zach Goldner (20:06):

Yeah. Until those are banned and you'll get your hand chopped off.

Ross Benes (20:10):

Banning VPNs, that would be crazy.

Marcus Johnson (20:12):

That's all we've got time for, for this episode. Thank you so much to my guests. Thank you to Ross.

Ross Benes (20:16):

Thanks, Marcus.

Marcus Johnson (20:17):

Yes, sir. And to Zach.

Zach Goldner (20:19):

Appreciate you added me on.

Marcus Johnson (20:20):

Absolutely, mate. And thanks to the whole editing crew as always and to everyone for listening to Behind the Numbers EMARKETER video podcast made possible by Fetch Rewards. Make sure you subscribe and follow and leave a rating and review if you can. Rob will be here tomorrow to host the Banking and Payment Show, discussing the younger generation's new American dream.