Executive Summary

2020 is a reminder that making predictions is filled with uncertainties. We’ll try again this year to predict some major stories in mobile advertising in 2021.

How has the coronavirus pandemic changed mobile advertising?

The pandemic has had two major effects on mobile. First, it has accelerated behavioral shifts among users, including increased video streaming, gaming, and mobile shopping. Second, it has accelerated innovation, with advertisers exploring new platforms, and publishers creating new products to address shifting behavioral patterns.

How will iOS 14 affect mobile marketing?

Most attention paid to iOS 14 is on the App Tracking Transparency framework, which will compel app developers to notify users if they want to track and share their data using Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA). This will make personalized advertising and attribution more difficult, but also accelerate the shift from waterfall auctions to contextual advertising. iOS 14 also adds a new category for location tracking, which gives users the chance to opt in to imprecise location tracking.

How will new US regulatory policies influence mobile advertising?

The election of a new administration will lead to more regulations. A federal data privacy bill is possible, as is increased scrutiny on the uses of biometric and location data, which may lead to more regulatory focus on bid-stream siphoning.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report explains our 10 predictions for the mobile advertising landscape next year, and the reasoning behind them.

KEY STAT: The coronavirus pandemic dampened growth in US mobile ad spending, but due to increased mobile usage, we now expect mobile ad spending to hit $156.38 billion by 2023, edging out our pre-pandemic figure of $155.26 billion.