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Lowe’s tops profit forecasts amid near-term uncertainty and market pressure

The news: Despite stiff headwinds from a sluggish housing market and broader economic uncertainty, Lowe’s outperformed profit expectations in Q1.

  • Adjusted earnings per share were $2.92, down 4.6% YoY but ahead of the $2.88 analyst forecast.
  • Revenues were $20.93 billion, down 2.0% and slightly below the $20.97 billion estimate.
  • Comparable sales fell 1.7%, better than the projected 2.04% drop.

Notably, Lowe’s reaffirmed its full-year guidance—mirroring Home Depot. At the high end, projected revenues would exceed last year’s total, and earnings per share would top fiscal 2024. Comparable sales are expected to be flat to up 1% YoY.

Holding the line: Lowe’s is leaning on operational discipline and consistent execution to navigate near-term challenges while advancing long-term priorities:

  • Diversifying its sourcing: Lowe’s has worked with its suppliers to reduce its reliance on China, which now accounts for just 20% of its purchase volume. About 60% of its products are sourced from the US, with diversification efforts continuing.
  • Expanding its pro business: Sales to professional customers, which are more stable than DIYers, grew mid-single digits in Q1. CEO Marvin Ellison credits these gains to strategic investments, including its recent acquisition of Artisan Design Group, and its revamped MyLowe’s Pro Rewards loyalty program.
  • Accelerating ecommerce: A partnership with tech platform Mirakl, announced Wednesday, should help Lowe’s expand its online assortment by simplifying catalog management for third-party sellers on Lowes.com.

Our take: Lowe’s continues to show resilience, prioritizing consistency and long-term growth drivers—like pro sales and ecommerce—even as broader market conditions remain volatile.

Editor's note: This content is part of EMARKETER’s subscription Briefings, where we pair daily updates with data and analysis from forecasts and research reports. Our Briefings prepare you to start your day informed, to provide critical insights in an important meeting, and to understand the context of what’s happening in your industry. Non-clients can click here to get a demo of our full platform and coverage.

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