Back-to-school season is getting harder for retailers. Many parents plan to increase their budget from last year, but they’re taking longer to make decisions. That forces retailers to adapt to a longer, more complicated buying journey.

“Parents are already building their back-to-school shopping lists, and most of them aren't moving in a straight line from seeing an ad to buying something,” said Rod Paolucci, global head of marketing at Channel Factory. “They're jumping between social feeds, streaming apps, search, and shopping apps, sometimes all in the same sitting, and buying things they hadn't planned to an hour before.”

Spending outlook

The reward for getting back-to-school right is a share of a market that keeps growing.

• Back-to-school is expected to hit $85.42 billion in US retail sales this year, accelerating 3.3% YoY, up from 2.5% annual growth in 2025, per EMARKETER.
• $53.06 billion will come from physical retail sales, and another $32.36 billion is expected from retail ecommerce sales.

Even with budgets under pressure, many parents plan to spend more than they did last year.

• A full 59% of parents said their per-child expenses will increase from last year, while just 11% will be spending less, according to a June Tinuiti survey.
• College parents trended higher than the overall average, with 70% saying they are spending more this year.

Delaying purchases

Back-to-school shopping begins with big sales promotions like Amazon Prime Day. This year, however, parents appear to be delaying purchases, which stretches out and complicates purchase decisions throughout the summer.

• Some 48% of planned spending is expected to occur by the end of July this year, down from 61% in 2025, according to a May Deloitte survey.

Parents delaying back-to-school purchases are comparing prices across multiple channels, and adopting other value-seeking behaviors. A full 50% of parents plan to cut back on other expenses, such as dining out and entertainment, to make room in the budget for school items, per Deloitte.

Roughly one-third (31%) of K-12 parents qualify as “hyper value-seekers” (those who adopt four or more cost-saving behaviors) according to Deloitte.

Delaying purchases and extending the buying journey across multiple months makes it challenging for retailers to reach customers at the precise time when they’re ready to buy.

“Only about 5% of shoppers are in-market at any given moment, ready to buy,” said Paolucci. “For back-to-school shopping, that's the parent who's already checking out with a cart full of supplies. There's nothing wrong with reaching them, but they can't be the only group a brand spends against. Focusing solely on this group means ignoring the 95% who haven't started their back-to-school list yet but are still active on social, streaming platforms, and search.”

Budget constraints top the list of consumer challenges, with 55% of shoppers calling this out, according to an Optimove survey conducted this spring.

Creative to help plan

A longer, multi-channel buying journey gives retailers more touchpoints to guide shoppers with creative. That doesn’t mean blasting out more emails or social media posts about savings. It means understanding what shoppers want and worry about when they budget, then reaching them with an omnichannel strategy.

“We're seeing brands want to understand how to begin the shopping experience sooner,” said Lance Wolder, SVP of commercial strategy and marketing at PadSquad. “Leaning into creative that helps them plan their shopping lists and make life easier [is a winning strategy]. Targeting alone doesn't do the work; we need great creative to change behavior.”

Beyond looking at national trends, retailers should consider what the data says about how their specific customer base is adjusting, as the back-to-school season shifts with delayed purchases and value-seeking behaviors.

“I think of it like studying,” said Wolder. “The brands that are adapting to consumer behaviors for kids and grads, using the available signals to measure outcomes, are the ones who will earn straight As this shopping season.”

Getting parents to shop earlier

Retailers can influence when consumers start shopping and buying.

In addition to messages that deliver value to customers, like shopping lists and budgeting tips, retailers can pull some levers that shoppers respond to.

Discounts and promotions (mentioned by 69% of respondents) were the top incentive to get customers to shop earlier, according to Optimove.

Limited availability or scarcity (45%) came second in the same survey. Early access to new products (43%) came third. These levers might not apply to value-seeking shoppers, but they are significant incentives for many shoppers.

Retailers that haven’t launched or recently refreshed their rewards program would benefit from doing so this back-to-school season. Rewards (33%) and gifts with early purchases (30%) were the next highest-ranking incentives for back-to-school shoppers.

“Parents aren't waiting for a seasonal cue to start shopping,” said Wolder. “They're setting the timeline themselves, and it's arriving earlier than brand and communications teams have accounted for.”