After years of digital acceleration, US retailers are heading into 2026 facing a more complicated reality. Tariff-related cost pressures still exist, retail media is maturing from experimentation to discipline, and AI is moving from back-end efficiency to front-of-house influence. Across all three forces, one theme is emerging for retail leaders: The physical store is becoming more, not less, central to how retailers protect margins, influence decisions, and differentiate experiences.

The pressure is on for retailers to extract value from existing traffic rather than rely on volume gains alone. For retail experts we talked to, that dynamic is pushing them to rethink stores not just as fulfillment hubs, but as environments where pricing pressure, media monetization, and personalization converge.

Tariffs are making shoppers more deliberate

While tariffs are no longer dominating headlines, their effects are still shaping consumer behavior in ways retailers can’t ignore. In categories where tariff exposure remains high, experts say shoppers are adjusting how and when they buy, increasing the importance of in-store price signaling, promotion timing, and comparison tools.

“There are several product categories, such as furniture, steel and aluminum products, etc., where most of the goods remain subject to tariffs, making them increasingly difficult for consumers to avoid," said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services. "As a result, shoppers are becoming more selective and savvier. They’re timing purchases around major seasonal sales like Prime Day, Deal Days, and Circle Week, and they’re researching more, comparing prices online and in-store to secure the best deals.”

Some 43.2% of US mobile shopping app buyers say they use a brand or retailer's app in-store to access discounts, coupons, or promotions, according to October 2025 data from Bizrate Insights and EMARKETER. For retailers, that means the store has to do more work at the moment of decision: Reinforcing value, clarifying trade-offs, and helping shoppers feel confident they’re buying at the right time and price.

Why it matters for retailers: As tariff-driven costs persist unevenly across categories, retailers that invest in clearer in-store pricing communication, timely promotions, and digital touchpoints that support comparison will be better positioned to convert cautious shoppers without racing to the bottom on price.

In-store retail media is growing up

In 2026, industry leaders expect in-store retail media to move further away from flashy experimentation and closer to disciplined, repeatable execution. As retailers are increasingly focused on formats that integrate naturally into the shopping experience and can be measured against real outcomes, US in-store retail media ad spending is expected to climb 33.1% this year, according to EMARKETER's December 2025 forecast.

"A big misconception is that an effective in-store media experience is inherently complicated," said Marlow Nickell, co-founder and CEO of GroceryTV. "Most purchase decisions still happen in the store, and the scale to influence those moments has grown significantly. More retailers are taking a ‘crawl, walk, run’ approach to in-store media, and the industry is better off for it.”

Nickell also pointed to a structural difference between digital and physical retail media that he believes will shape strategy in 2026.

"One overlooked shift is how different the in-store retail media landscape is from online," he said. "Digital retail media spend consolidates around a few major platforms, but in physical retail, grocery sales are distributed across many retailers, and that fragmentation is a strength if you plan for it.”

Why it matters for retailers: As in-store media scales, simplicity and measurability will be competitive advantages. Retailers that standardize formats, prove incrementality, and position stores as scaled audience environments will be better positioned to attract sustained brand investment.

AI is moving from optimization to experience

If tariffs and retail media are reshaping how value is communicated in-store, AI is reshaping how shoppers experience the store itself. EMARKETER analysis shows retailers rapidly expanding AI investments beyond forecasting and operations into personalization, recommendations, and real-time decisioning at the shelf.

“In the coming year, retailers are doubling down on first-party identity and real-time audience solutions to deliver person-based, cross-channel engagement and dynamic ad decisioning tied to margin and inventory," said Adam Skinner, managing director of unified retail media at Epsilon. "In-store retail media will be a major growth frontier, with investments in digital shelf signage, smart cart screens, and computer vision for closed-loop attribution.”

From the shopper’s perspective, the most visible shift may come from agentic AI and tools that actively assist rather than passively recommend.

“By 2026, agentic AI will continue to shape shopping behaviors across both online and in-store experiences," said David McIntosh, chief connected stores officer at Instacart. "As conversational AI assistants become part of the shopping journey, via smart shopping carts and retailer apps, customers will increasingly rely on them for tasks that once required time and effort.”

McIntosh outlines how that could change everyday shopping behavior.

“AI will make it easier to build weekly meal plans that fit a family’s budget and dietary needs, help customers break out of their shopping autopilot by surfacing relevant new products and produce real-time reminders in-store so they don’t miss anything on their list,” he said.

Why it matters for retailers: In 2026, AI-driven in-store experiences will increasingly separate leaders from laggards. Retailers that invest now in unified data, first-party identity, and real-time decisioning will be better positioned to turn AI from a backend efficiency tool into a driver of loyalty, larger baskets, and differentiated store experiences.

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