The news: The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) increased its forecast for 2026 US ad spending growth to 12.3% YoY, up 2.8 percentage points from the 9.5% growth it projected in January. The change was driven by “major cyclical events,” a strong H1, and easing concerns about macroeconomic conditions, per the IAB.

Updates include:

• 16.5% YoY growth for social media, up 1.9 points from its January projection.
• 15.6% for connected TV (CTV), up 1.8 points.
• 13.6% for commerce media, up 1.5 points.

Digging into the data: The IAB’s outlook now sits closer to EMARKETER’s August forecast that shows total US media ad spending in 2026 will grow 15.6% YoY, a 2.4-point increase from our May forecast.

“AI-driven ad performance at the largest platforms, retail media’s expansion off the retailer’s own shelf, and continued CTV inventory growth are adding tens of billions between them,” EMARKETER senior forecasting analyst Drew Spink said.

However, we project that media ad spending will slow to a 9.4% YoY increase in 2027. Part of the spending difference between 2026 and 2027 is because of this year’s North America-based FIFA World Cup and the most expensive midterm cycle in US history, Spink said.

Implications for agencies and brands: The underlying drivers beneath the IAB’s and EMARKETER’s forecasts point to structural changes, not one-time boosts.

• Marketers should expect such factors to continue adding to growth even as the cyclical effects of 2026—with the higher political spending of election years—fade away.
• Locking in pricing or inventory assumptions based on this year’s higher growth rate could risk overestimating what the market will offer going forward.
• Those who built budgets heavily around 2026’s tournament-supported and election inventory, especially in CTV, should plan for spending to normalize in 2027.
• Stress test plans for long-term retail media and CTV commitments against the slower growth we expect next year by evaluating prior spending cycles and measuring consumer demand.