The news: Elevated mortgage rates and home prices, along with global uncertainty and labor-market concerns, will keep US housing turnover rates muted this year and next as potential homebuyers remain on the sidelines, per a Reuters survey of property specialists.

• Existing home sales—which account for about 90% of all transactions—are forecast to remain near a 4.1 million annual pace in the coming quarters before edging up to just under 4.2 million by year-end. That remains well below the 6.6 million peak in 2021.
• The challenging landscape is also weighing on new home sales, with homebuilder Lennar lowering its full-year home deliveries target after reporting declining revenues for FYQ2.

The backdrop is forcing housing-related retailers that have traditionally relied on home sales to drive demand for big-ticket items like appliances and furniture to chart new paths for growth.

Zooming in:

Home improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s have spent the past few years expanding their pro businesses through acquisitions, targeting contractors who are less sensitive to housing turnover than DIY consumers. Demand from pro customers helped offset weaker housing-driven spending, enabling both companies to beat Q1 2026 expectations.

Williams-Sonoma is taking a similar approach since designers, developers, and procurement groups generate more consistent demand than individual homeowners. Its B2B business grew 13.7% in Q1, which helped lift its net earnings 4.3%.

Wayfair, meanwhile, is focusing on loyalty. The home goods company’s program, launched in October 2024, is helping drive incremental spending in an otherwise infrequent purchase category. Benefits like free shipping during promotional events supported a 7.4% YoY revenue increase in Q1.

Bob’s Discount Furniture highlights another route to growth, which is value. It grew net sales 8.5% YoY and comparable sales 1.2% as its lower price points attracted shoppers across income levels. By pricing products 20% to 25% below competitors’ list prices, Bob’s drove traffic and encouraged customers to trade up within its assortment.

RH’s premium positioning has helped offset broader demand softness. The company expects its new RH Estates concept—focused on traditional designs and to-the-trade brands—to contribute to revenue growth of 4.5% to 8% this fiscal year.

Best Buy is also adapting. With appliance demand under pressure, the retailer is investing in pricing, marketing, product availability, and delivery speed. At the same time, it is expanding higher-margin businesses such as its retail media network and marketplace.

Implications for retailers: The housing market’s challenges are not expected to ease soon. The benchmark 30-year mortgage rate, which has hovered around 6.6% in recent months—well above the 4.3% average over the past decade—is unlikely to fall and could rise further this year.

With turnover expected to remain subdued, retailers will need to find new ways to drive demand and broaden their revenue streams to reduce their reliance on housing-driven sales.

Go further: Check out the leading housing-related retailers’ results in our Live Earnings Report: Retail & Ecommerce Tracker Q1 2026.