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Home Depot’s supply chain diversification strategy should help it sidestep price increases

The headline: Home Depot won’t raise prices in response to the latest US import tariffs, executive vice president of merchandising Billy Bastek told analysts on the Q1 earnings call.

  • The retailer credits its diversified supply chain for helping keep prices in check. More than half of its assortment is sourced domestically, and most vendors already split production across several countries. Within a year, no single non-US country is expected to supply more than 10% of Home Depot’s products.
  • Holding the line on prices gives Home Depot—and its suppliers—a great opportunity to gain share, Bastek said.
  • The position is a stark contrast to Walmart, Mattel, and others that have warned of price hikes amid the highest average US tariffs since 1934.

Zooming out: Bastek’s comments came as Home Depot reported Q1 results that showed resilience amid stiff macro headwinds and a housing affordability crisis that continues to sideline potential buyers.

  • Revenues were $39.86 billion, up 9.4% YoY, ahead of the $39.25 billion analysts expected.
  • Adjusted EPS was $3.56, down 3.0% YoY, and just short of the $3.59 consensus estimate.
  • Comparable sales slipped 0.3%, shy of the -.0.2% expected, while US comparable sales were 0.2%, ahead of the -.16% expected.

Notably, the company maintained its guidance for the fiscal year, which includes total sales growth of about 2.8% and comparable sales growth of roughly 1.0% for the comparable 52-week period.

Why management remains upbeat: The retailer pointed to several reasons for its decision to maintain guidance.

  • Diversified growth engines. The pro segment keeps outperforming DIY. Last year’s acquisitions of SRS Distribution and Construction Resources are helping broaden Home Depot’s reach with contractors on complex jobs, and both are exceeding expectations.
  • Resilient customer base. The average Home Depot customer earns $110,000, and 80% of them are homeowners. A rebounding stock market and rising home values leave them “in a good spot,” CEO Ted Decker said.
  • Aging housing stock. Fifty-five percent of US homes are at least 40 years old, which should translate into continued demand for maintenance and remodeling projects.

Our take: Home Depot is navigating tariff pressure, a stagnant housing market, and economic uncertainty with steady execution. It beat on revenues, came close on earnings, and isn’t wavering on its full-year outlook or its pricing. Its supply chain diversification plan—which limits exposure to any single non-US country—positions it well for whatever comes next.

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