The data: We expect US holiday sales to grow 4.1% during the final two months of the year. While that’s a significant increase from 2.7% growth last year, it lags behind our 4.3% full-year forecast for 2026.

That would mark the second straight year in which holiday sales growth trails the first 10 months of the year, reflecting the mounting pressures on consumers from a weakening labor market, elevated gas prices, and persistent inflation.