The news: After generic semaglutide launched in India in January following the loss of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy patent in the region, semaglutide’s share of the country’s GLP-1 market rose to 33% in March, up from 25% in February. The gain came at the expense of Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide), which fell from 71% market share to 64%, according to Bloomberg. Mounjaro is still under patent protection in India.

Novo's semaglutide (sold as Wegovy for weight loss and Ozempic for type 2 diabetes) also lost patent protection this year in other global markets, including Canada, Brazil, China, Mexico, and South Africa. However, semaglutide won’t face generic competition in the US, Australia, Japan, the UK, and most of Europe until at least 2031, per IQVIA.

Why it matters: With the first generic GLP-1 weight loss drug now on the market, early data shows how quickly lower-cost copies can pull share and revenues not only from semaglutide developer Novo, but also from rival brand Mounjaro/tirzepatide.

• Novo, which cut Wegovy and Ozempic prices in India by up to 37% last year and again by as much at 40% in April, holds 70% of the semaglutide market, while Torrent Pharmaceuticals has reached 8% share.
• Lilly’s Mounjaro sales in India fell from about $14.6 million in February to $12.3 million in March, per Bloomberg.
• More than 40 drugmakers have launched generic semaglutide drugs in India, pushing volume to more than double month over month in March.

Implications for GLP-1 drugmakers: As semaglutide generics gain ground around the world, new GLP-1 entrants will face markets where the easy growth is already gone. Launching a new brand at typical premium pricing will be nearly impossible in countries where expectations have reset around low-cost GLP-1 access.

For Novo, Lilly, and new GLP-1 competitors, that puts a premium on success in high-income, later-to-generic markets—especially the US. Those are places where companies may still have room to shape pricing, positioning, and uptake before their own patent protection drops off.

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