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GenAI arms race: Big Tech to pour $400 billion into AI buildout

The news: Big Tech’s Q2 2025 earnings reveal that Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft expect to spend between $364 billion and $400 billion collectively on capital expenditures in their 2025 fiscal years. 

The vast majority is targeted toward AI-related infrastructure such as new data centers and cloud capacity, per The Wall Street Journal.

This is a sharp increase from previous projections of around $325 billion and now rivals or exceeds other major sectors—and even surpasses the EU’s 2024 defense spending of €326 billion ($352.7 billion).

Capital spending by scale:

  • Amazon invested $31.4 billion in capex in Q2 and is on track to more than $118 billion in 2025, with 75% of its budget directed to Amazon Web Services (AWS) AI cloud compute.
  • Meta aggregated its Q2 spending into a full-year capex outlook of $66 billion to $72 billion for 2025—up $30 billion YoY—to fund its Prometheus and Hyperion AI supercomputers.
  • Microsoft spent $24.2 billion on capex in Q2 and forecasts $30 billion this quarter, backing Azure and OpenAI compute assets.
  • Alphabet invested $22.45 billion in capex in Q2 and has raised its full-year guidance to $85 billion. It’s expanding investments in Gemini servers and in-house chips.

Apple didn’t report capex but indicated plans to expand AI data centers and talent reallocations; the company is eyeing potential acquisitions for Apple Intelligence.

Industrywide challenges: Big Tech giants are all facing similar roadblocks, and some of these issues could take years to resolve even if billions of dollars are being poured into expansion.

  • Slowing cloud growth: AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud revenues were below analyst targets.
  • Infrastructure stretch: Data center capacity is maxed even as demand for AI infrastructure is climbing.
  • Global headwinds: Chinese AI advances and low-cost rivals like DeepSeek pressure margins and challenge Big Tech’s expenses and expansion.

Our take: Big Tech investments into generative AI, hardware, and infrastructure aim to lock in long-term leads—potentially reshaping ad ecosystems, data access, and partner models. But that scale push carries risks, like diminishing returns and talent wars that crowd out niche innovators.

Success will hinge on delivering real ROI, seamless integration, and differentiated branded experiences.

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