The data: Consumer expectations for ecommerce delivery continue to rise, raising the stakes for retailers to speed fulfillment or risk falling further behind Amazon and Walmart.

The longest consumers are willing to wait for free shipping has fallen to an average of 2.6 days after being at or near 3.5 days for the past five years, according to AlixPartner’s 2026 Home Delivery Survey.

Shoppers are also increasingly intolerant of poor delivery experiences. A single late delivery can have lasting consequences: Without compensation, 55% of consumers say they would either be less likely to shop with the retailer again or stop shopping there altogether.

Why it matters: Amazon and Walmart are reshaping shoppers’ delivery expectations and behavior, at the expense of most other retailers. We expect the two companies to account for over half of US ecommerce sales this year for the first time, a share that will continue to grow into 2028.

That is putting considerable pressure on competing retailers to ensure that they can deliver the speed, accuracy, and communication shoppers require. Nearly three-quarters (73%) are fine-tuning their distribution network to improve home delivery, while 53% are investing in planning and execution tech platforms, and 52% are diversifying their last-mile carriers. Companies are also betting on AI to improve order accuracy and reliability, refine routing and dispatches, reduce failed or missed deliveries, and optimize network design and last-mile capacity.

Implications for retailers: Consumers’ heightened ecommerce expectations are likely to strengthen Amazon’s and Walmart’s competitive advantages. First, these two have the clear advantage in fast delivery, with under-30-minute fulfillment options in select markets and same- and next-day delivery offerings across the country. Second, the pressure to be fast could drive more brands and retailers to use Walmart’s and Amazon’s fulfillment services, enabling both companies to expand a high-margin revenue stream that could help finance additional supply chain investments.