Commerce media is entering a new phase, one defined less by rapid expansion and more by operational maturity, EMARKETER analysts and industry leaders say.

• Commerce media ad spending will reach $83.71 billion in the US this year, accounting for 20.5% of all digital ad spending, according to EMARKETER's June 2026 forecast.

As the channel becomes a core part of marketers' media strategies, the conversation is shifting from whether to invest to how to make those investments deliver measurable business results.

In a new EMARKETER guide titled "Commerce media outlook: What industry leaders see ahead," our analysts and industry leaders give their thoughts about the capabilities brands should prioritize today, the consumer behaviors that will shape tomorrow, and what it will take to succeed as commerce media becomes a permanent pillar of the media mix.

Arielle Feger, a senior analyst at EMARKETER covering retail and commerce media, told us what actually gets consumers' attention and how marketers can build trust.

Q. As commerce media becomes more personalized and AI-powered, what do consumers actually value, and where do brands risk crossing the line?

A: Consumers are really looking for two things: saving time and saving money. If a brand can make shopping easier or help someone find a better deal, personalization feels valuable. Where brands get into trouble is when technology starts creating friction instead of removing it. Every investment in AI or personalization should come back to one simple question: Does this actually make the shopping experience better?

Q. Consumers increasingly encounter advertising throughout the shopping journey, from retailer sites to marketplaces and delivery apps. What separates a helpful commerce media experience from one that feels intrusive?

A: It comes down to context. People are much more receptive to advertising when it helps them accomplish what they're already trying to do. If you're shopping in-store, maybe that's surfacing a relevant deal or promotion. If you're browsing online, it could be a recipe, a product demo, or something that helps you make a decision. The most effective ads deliver genuine value for the consumer.

Q. Are consumers becoming more receptive to commerce media experiences, or more selective?

A: I'd actually say both. Consumers are finding inspiration everywhere now, so they're more open to commerce media than they were a few years ago. At the same time, they're becoming much more selective about what they pay attention to. That means brands have to meet people with creative that fits the environment and measure success beyond just the immediate purchase.

Q. Trust has become a major theme across digital commerce. What are the biggest factors that determine whether consumers trust recommendations, sponsored placements, or AI-powered shopping experiences?

A: Trust is built over time, but it can disappear pretty quickly. One bad recommendation or poor product experience can be enough to send someone somewhere else. On the other hand, brands that consistently deliver relevant recommendations and quality products earn credibility, even as shopping shifts into newer channels. As AI becomes more involved in the shopping journey, consistency is going to matter even more. Consumers need to feel like they're getting the same brand experience no matter where they interact with you.

Q. What's one consumer behavior you think commerce media leaders should be paying much closer attention to over the next few years?

A: I'd watch loyalty program engagement. Most consumers belong to several loyalty programs, but they actively use only one or two. That's a really important distinction because loyalty is no longer just about retention. It's also one of the best sources of first-party data and personalization. Brands should be asking which rewards and experiences people actually use, what's falling flat, and how they can turn those insights into more relevant offers that keep customers coming bac

Read the full report.

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