Executive Summary

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) usage has exploded in the US, as consumers flock to installment loans that blend the flexibility of credit, short repayment terms, and app-based shopping into a simple, easy user experience. But investor and regulatory scrutiny, increasing competition, and a pending recession are putting BNPL providers at risk.

Key Question: What are the short- and long-term challenges of BNPL, and what do they mean for providers and retailers?

KEY STAT: We forecast that Klarna, Afterpay, and Affirm count close to 70 million users on their BNPL platforms. But newer entrants Block, PayPal, and Apple draw from larger, more diversified user bases, increasing the pressure.