Economic concerns and global tensions are forcing travelers to rethink their summer plans as booking windows shrink and cost-consciousness rises.

"People are literally waiting as long as they can to make those decisions," said our analyst Rachel Wolff on a recent episode of "Behind the Numbers."

• Marriott CEO Tony Capuano told Bloomberg earlier this month that the current booking window for both leisure and business travel has compressed to just 21 days—an unusually short timeframe for summer vacation planning.

Here are three ways summer travel will be different this year.

Economic uncertainty is driving hesitation

The most significant shift in summer travel for 2025 is widespread uncertainty among potential travelers.

• Some 23% of US adults are uncertain if they'll travel at all this summer, up from 18% last year, according to an April survey from Bankrate—the biggest year-over-year jump in indecision.

"Everyone's just not sure what the future will hold and what their finances will dictate that they can do," said our analyst Jennifer Pearson in the episode, highlighting how economic concerns are creating a "wait and see" approach to travel planning.

This hesitation is reflected in concrete numbers:

• One in five US consumers have traveled or will travel less than previously planned, according to a May survey from The Points Guy and The Harris Poll.
• The data also found that 19% of US consumers have/will shorten the duration of their trips due to the current economy.

Cost consciousness reigns supreme

With economic pressures mounting, value-seeking has become paramount for those who do decide to travel. Our analysts on the podcasts said that cost-consciousness is manifesting in several ways:

• More domestic trips instead of international journeys

• Increased road trips replacing flights

• Shorter stays rather than week-long excursions

• Growing interest in cruises across all income brackets

"The one segment that is strong across all income levels is cruises," said Wolff. "That is the one area where lower income households are actually going to be spending more this year than last year."

This shift is creating a notable bifurcation in the travel market. Households making less than $50,000 now represent just 18% of summer travelers according to Deloitte data—a dramatic drop from 31% two years ago. Meanwhile, Wolff said airlines like Delta are reconfiguring their planes to accommodate more premium seating for higher-income travelers who continue to fly.

2025's expected travel boom faces headwinds

The year 2025 was initially forecast to be a record-breaking period for travel, with the International Air Transport Association projecting 5.2 billion people would fly globally—a 7% increase and the first time the 5 billion threshold would be crossed.

Instead, the industry is seeing downgraded forecasts. Tourism Economics revised its outlook from a 9% increase in inbound visits to the US to a 5% drop.

A significant factor in this reversal is growing anti-US sentiment abroad.

• Global favorability of the US fell 20 points between January and March according to Morning Consult data, with particularly steep declines in Canada (down 44 points), France (down 33), and the UK (down 31).

"The US could lose as much as $12.5 billion in spending from international tourists this year as a result of these anti-US boycotts," said Wolff. "That's going to have a huge impact on the domestic hospitality industry."

Listen to the full episode.

This article was prepared with the assistance of generative AI tools to support content organization, summarization, and drafting. All AI-generated contributions have been reviewed, fact-checked, and verified for accuracy and originality by EMARKETER editors. Any recommendations reflect EMARKETER’s research and human judgment.

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