For years, retail media potential seemed limitless as growth skyrocketed while retail media networks launched one after the other.

Today, retail media is entering a fundamentally different growth phase. During an afternoon eventat Cannes produced by EMARKETER and Sensor Tower, our analyst Sarah Marzano described an industry transitioning from expansion at all costs to a greater focus on efficiency, differentiation, and measurable outcomes.

• EMARKETER forecasts retail media ad spending will continue climbing, surpassing $118 billion in the US by 2030.
• But the hypergrowth era that defined the industry's first chapter is beginning to slow, with annual growth rates expected to moderate significantly over the next several years.

While retail media's outsized growth advantage over established channels like search and social is beginning to narrow, said Marzano, the industry's influence continues to expand as the category evolves beyond its retail roots. This is accelerating the shift toward a broader commerce media ecosystem that is becoming increasingly embedded in advertisers' media strategies.

In fact, 40% of advertisers now consider commerce media a must-buy or necessary part of their media plans, placing it on par with connected TV (CTV) and ahead of several traditional advertising channels, according to data from the Interactive Advertising Bureau and Advertiser Perceptions.

But, even though advertisers are treating commerce media as a core media channel, many organizations are still catching up.

Nearly 60% of commerce media operators remain in various stages of building, developing, or piloting their capabilities rather than operating fully mature commerce media businesses, found data from Koddi and Forrester Consulting.

• Retail media leaders report the highest confidence in areas like strategy and vision, but confidence drops significantly when it comes to measurement, reporting, technology, and operational capabilities, according to an EMARKETER and Bain & Co survey.
• Even more striking, there is a roughly 30-point gap between confidence in retail media strategy and organizational belief in that strategy, found the same survey.

Securing the CMO vote

The next phase of commerce media growth will increasingly come from national media budgets rather than traditional shopper marketing budgets, said Andrew Lipsman, independent analyst and consultant at Media, Ads + Commerce, during the same EMARKETER and Sensor Tower event.

That requires convincing CMOs that commerce media can deliver not only measurable outcomes, but also the scale, reach, and cultural relevance associated with traditional media channels. Lipsman’s research suggests many brand leaders already see the opportunity, even if investment has yet to fully follow.

To illustrate that point, Lipsman quoted former Hershey CMO Jill Baskin.

“Most CMOs come from creative or brand marketing backgrounds, while retail media has its roots in performance marketing,” she said. “To capture the CMO’s attention, they will need to be convinced that in-store digital offers new creative opportunities and works as an upper funnel tool attracting new customers.”

AI: Threat or opportunity?

Both speakers pushed back on the idea that AI represents an existential threat to commerce media.

Marzano argued that retailers remain in a strong position because they control the asset advertisers value most: transaction data and purchase behavior. Those advantages become even more valuable as marketers seek ways to apply AI to real-world consumer activity.

Lipsman challenged concerns around agentic commerce as well. While AI-powered shopping assistants are often cited as a potential disruptor, his research suggests consumers are using these tools primarily for research, discovery, and validation rather than handing over purchasing decisions entirely. In many cases, generative AI appears to be driving consumers toward retailers rather than replacing them.