The data: US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value growth will slow from 22.5% this year to 7.7% by 2030, per our forecast. Spend per user will follow a similar arc, falling from 16.7% growth this year to 4.9% by 2030. 

But the user distribution behind these figures reveals a strategic opening: Households earning $125,000 or more will account for 27.5 million BNPL users in 2026, the largest segment by income bracket, per our forecast.

What this means: The shifting income mix signals where spending growth can come from. 

• BNPL players’ push into essential categories like rent and groceries can turn installment into a budgeting tool for some US adults’ financial survival. 
• Alternatively, more affluent households may use BNPL as a convenient aid for higher ticket purchases in niche industries.

With spend per user projected to reach $2,087.34 by 2030, per our forecast, growth depends on drawing bigger-ticket transactions.

Providers are already moving toward bigger categories. In 2025, Affirm and Klarna partnered with auto repair software companies Shopmonkey and Tekion. Pushes into travel have followed, including tie-ups with Qatar Airlines and Expedia. 

Implications for BNPL providers: As growth rates slow, the path to more volume and revenues runs through higher average transaction values, not just more users. 

Providers should prioritize integrations with platforms that serve irregular, high-cost needs: home and auto repair, elective medical procedures, veterinary bills, and travel. These categories are often not easily deferred, making installment payment more compelling than discretionary retail.