The trend: Sales on Black Friday and the first few days of the Cyber Five outpaced expectations, as cost-conscious consumers responded to retailers’ steep discounts.
The numbers: US retail sales (excluding automotive) grew 4.1% YoY on Black Friday, per Mastercard SpendingPulse.
- Ecommerce sales rose 10.4% YoY, while in-store sales increased 1.7% YoY.
- Those online results are roughly in line with Adobe data that reported consumers spent $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, a 9.1% jump YoY that slightly outpaced both our Black Friday ecommerce expectation of an 8.7% gain and Adobe's 8.3% forecast.
- The average online discount rate was 28%, the same as last year, per Salesforce. However, those deals drove plenty of bargain-hunting shoppers to buy. There were notable bargains across key categories, including toys (discounts peaked at 30% off listed price), electronics (down 29%), TVs (down 24%), and apparel (down 25%), per Adobe Analytics.
Zooming in: The growth reflects a combination of continued consumer resilience—especially among higher-income households—and elevated prices. Inflation stood at 3% in September, the most recent data available.
- The cost-of-living crisis is making consumers more conscious of their spending. Nearly a third (29%) expect to spend less on the holidays in 2025 than they did last year, per a CouponFollow survey.
- Even enthusiasm for Black Friday—the most popular day of the Cyber Five—slipped, with roughly 70% of shoppers (130.4 million) planning to shop the day after Thanksgiving, down from 72% (131.7 million) last year, per the National Retail Federation.
Inflation’s impact was evident. Salesforce, which reported more muted US online sales growth of 3.0% on Black Friday, found elevated prices hampered online demand.
Order volumes fell 1% YoY as average selling prices rose 7%. Consumers also purchased fewer items per checkout, with units per transaction down 2%.
The biggest trends: