The data: The global beauty market is forecast to grow 5% annually through 2030, according to McKinsey’s latest State of Beauty report.

While topline growth is expected to be steady, the industry itself is undergoing significant upheaval. Consumers are discovering and purchasing products differently, changing the demands and expectations for beauty brands.

Key trends:

Beauty purchases are moving online. Ecommerce will account for most beauty growth into 2030, particularly in North America, where Amazon and TikTok are taking the place of department and drug stores. L'Oréal's H1 2026 earnings underscored that point: Ecommerce revenues grew 18% YoY, compared with 6.8% like-for-like sales growth for the overall business, and accounted for almost one-third of sales in the period.

• Our forecast expects US cosmetics and beauty ecommerce sales to grow more than twice as fast as the overall category and account for nearly one-quarter of beauty retail sales.
• McKinsey estimates that 2026 could be the first year that beauty sales on Amazon and TikTok surpass the combined sales of Sephora and Ulta Beauty. TikTok is already the fourth-largest health and beauty retailer in the US, according to NIQ.

Value drives purchases. While beauty is among the last categories financially strained consumers would cut, shoppers are also looking for products that offer the best value for money. That helps explain the sharp rise in interest for K-beauty: Worldwide sales are up 53% YoY and 131% over the past two years, per NIQ, as consumers embrace high-quality, effective, and innovative products at low prices.

GLP-1 use is boosting sales. As with categories like apparel, growing GLP-1 adoption is boosting demand for beauty brands that address side effects like thinning hair and loss of skin elasticity. That’s been a boon for companies such as Ulta Beauty and L’Oréal, with the latter launching new products, including Kiehl’s CollaShot and Redken Acidic Color Gloss, to help tackle those concerns. Overall, households with GLP-1 users spend around 30% more on beauty than non-GLP-1 households, per Circana, which could reflect their changing needs and growing confidence.