Like Amazon Music, Apple’s audio streaming platform isn’t supported by advertising at any subscription level. If Apple Music and platforms like it continue to take a larger share of the audio streaming market, it could have an adverse effect on advertisers who are trying to reach this segment of music listeners.
But the strategies that Apple has implemented to bolster user growth are contingent upon the success of its other products, particularly the iPhone. And through the end of our forecast window in 2023, we do not expect Apple Music’s US user share will exceed 20% of digital audio listeners.
“Growth has been exceptional the past two years,” said eMarketer forecasting analyst Chris Bendtsen. “It’s been driven by a combination of things: Apple Music being pre-installed on new iPhones, free trials converting to subscriptions, loyalty to the Apple brand, and smartphone audio as an activity growing overall.”
This strategy has succeeded thanks to a modest increase of iPhone users in the US. But that growth has already begun to slow down and it's expected to decline significantly in the coming years. This should prevent Apple from taking a larger share of US smartphone users.
We estimate that 45.2% of US monthly active smartphone users will be iOS users in 2019. While still a massive chunk of US smartphone users, that number isn’t expected to grow by more than 0.3% between 2018 and 2021.