The news: Uncertainty is hanging over the airline industry as fluctuating crude oil prices make even near-term planning difficult.

Case in point: Three weeks ago, American Airlines expected to guide to full-year pretax earnings of around $1.5 billion, roughly four times its 2025 pretax income. But since the start of July, fuel cost projections for the rest of the year have risen by nearly $1.6 billion, wiping out those expectations. The airline now expects adjusted earnings per share to range from a 65-cent loss to a 65-cent gain, down from the 41-cent loss to $1.10 gain it forecast just three months earlier, and well below the $1.70 to $2.70 range it outlined earlier this year.

The comparison: American’s lowered guidance stands in contrast to Delta and United, both of which said earlier this month that higher airfares have not deterred travelers and noted strong growth in premium-cabin sales.

Like its competitors, American is trying to offset cost pressures by leaning into higher-margin offerings. It is expanding premium capacity on new aircraft and retrofitting its existing fleet. In Q2, for example, American increased lie-flat and premium economy capacity nearly twice as fast as main cabin capacity to capture more premium demand.

Implications for marketers: Despite the macro headwinds, demand for travel remains resilient, with consumers continuing to prioritize trip experiences even as costs rise.

But that demand is becoming more uneven. While premium travelers are largely absorbing higher prices, more price-sensitive customers are showing signs of strain. Already, nearly 2 in 5 (35%) consumers who are not traveling this summer say they can’t afford to, and about a third (32%) say travel is too expensive, per a recent Deloitte survey.

That split raises the stakes for segmentation. To avoid further customer erosion, airlines will need to tailor messaging and offers more precisely by leaning into premium positioning where demand is strongest while using targeted promotions and loyalty incentives to keep more price-sensitive travelers engaged.