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Amazon Prime will make up 53.1% of US paid retail membership fee revenues this year, according to our estimates. This puts it leagues ahead of closest rival Costco, whose share will be just 9.5%. Walmart-owned Sam’s Club and Walmart+ will account for 5.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

Beyond the chart: As much as Walmart wants to be an alternative to Amazon, it isn’t there. Walmart+’s deals and media offerings can’t compete with Prime’s selection, speed, and shows. Walmart recently revamped its app and website and is building out its Walmart Connect retail media network, but it’s still nowhere near Amazon in terms of subscription dominance.

More like this:

• How Walmart+ SVP plans to get ‘most of America’ to join the membership program
• To retain customers, retail brands are rolling out paid memberships
• Revenue growth has slowed despite the influx of new paid retail memberships
• What marketers need to know about Walmart in 5 charts
• Yesterday’s Chart of the Day: I want my CTV

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues from company reports, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.