Few words have dominated the past few years like “affordability.” It’s been a common thread across Democrats’ winning campaign messages (and JD Vance’s post-election analysis), a recurring talking point on retailer and brand earnings calls, and a staple of economic commentary.

But after watching the midterm results roll in, I’ve been stuck on two questions, neither of which has an easy answer: What does affordability actually mean, and how does any politician or company deliver it?

Campaigns, earnings calls, and economists aren’t talking about the same thing

When political campaigns focus on affordability, they point to how new pressures like tariffs and the war in Iran exacerbated long-standing expenses like healthcare, housing, childcare, and student loans. Those concerns are widespread: 60% of voters worry about affording healthcare, as do 59% about gas and transportation costs, per an October KFF poll.

Retailers and brands care less about where those pressures come from and more about how they’re changing where consumers shop, what they buy, and how much they spend. Private label is one clear beneficiary: Its market share hit 23.8% in the first half of the year, an all-time high, per the Private Label Manufacturers Association.

Economists, for their part, are usually talking about the lingering toll from years of above-target inflation, a jarring shift for consumers accustomed to decades of stable prices. Consumer prices rose 30.6% between January 2020 and September 2026, far outpacing the 18.6% increase over the entire 10 years before that, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Whatever the framing, the frustration showed up at the polls: Nearly 9 in 10 voters said the cost of living was a “crucial” or “major” factor in their vote, per NBC News exit polling. Paychecks aren’t closing the gap. Average weekly wages rose 3.6% between September 2025 and September 2026, slightly trailing 3.7% inflation, and real wages fell in 40 states, per a USAFacts analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Meanwhile, the price of a basic middle-class life keeps climbing. Gas averaged $4.15 a gallon on Tuesday, the highest ever recorded on an election day, per AAA. Homeownership has been out of reach for the median household since 2021, according to the Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor. And a new car costs an average of $48,402 in 2025, up from $37,310 in 2019, per Edmunds. That’s a roughly 30% jump in six years, putting a new vehicle out of reach for many households.

Price cuts for everyday goods don’t equal affordability

The common thread that ties these perspectives together is the notion that affordability extends far beyond prices for goods. It’s about purchasing power, financial flexibility, and the cumulative weight of household bills that all come due at once. Grocers are rolling out high-profile price cuts, but $10 off a grocery bill does little for a shopper in Yuma, Arizona, whose Obamacare marketplace premium is rising $263 a month, whose utility bill keeps climbing, and whose credit card balance costs more to carry each month.

That’s why affordability is so hard to deliver. Policymakers can relieve some of the pressures weighing on consumers (our recently published Midterm Election Report explores Democrats’ affordability agenda), and retailers can offer promotions, more private-label products, and value-priced meal bundles. But household costs are set by many hands at once, from Congress and insurers to utilities, lenders, and landlords, which is why no single policy or promotion can offset them all.

The spending numbers don’t tell the whole story

For all their anxiety, consumers haven’t stopped spending. We expect US retail sales to grow 5.4% this year and 3.7% next year, with growth still outpacing inflation. So in addition to paying more, consumers are buying more.

But that resilience is lopsided. Higher-income households account for a disproportionate share of spending. The top 10% of households account for 23% of consumer spending, per the Minneapolis Fed—more than double their share of households. Other analyses have pegged the share even higher. Either way, the top of the market is doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

Retailers see the same divide. Walmart said earlier this year that most of its market share gains came from households earning more than $100,000, while many households earning under $50,000 are stretched, with some living paycheck to paycheck.

Some of that spending runs on debt rather than income. Credit card balances rose by $21 billion in Q2 2026 to $1.26 trillion, per the New York Fed, and Q3 numbers will be released next week. Delinquency rates remain above pre-pandemic levels, and carrying a balance is already expensive: The average APR on cards accruing interest was 22.4% in August, near record highs, per Federal Reserve data. Households are also setting less money aside: The personal saving rate was 3.8% in September, down from 4.0% in August and 5.1% a year earlier. After several years of elevated costs, that resilience is wearing thin, and it may not take much more pressure to push households past their limits.

The strain is not confined to lower-income households—it reaches well into the middle class. A recent Pew Research Center survey found 52% of middle-income adults lack emergency savings to cover three months of expenses, and 22% can’t pay all their monthly bills, compared with 20% and 7% of upper-income adults.

Put together, the picture is less a contradiction and more like a split: Those at the very top of the income spectrum are spending confidently, while a broad middle keeps spending with less of a cushion and more debt. That middle is most exposed if the Fed rates rise in December, as widely expected, making credit cards and auto loans more expensive when households lean on them to bridge the gap. How it holds up will ultimately determine whether next year’s spending slowdown is a gentle descent or a sharper drop.

What brands can actually deliver

Brands and retailers can’t solve affordability. But they can help households manage it.

Value means more than price. When a budget leaves little room for surprises, predictability can matter nearly as much as cost. Aldi has built its model around that: consistently low prices, quality private-label products, and pack sizes that fit a tight weekly budget. Many shoppers have made it a routine stop: 21.2% of Aldi visitors made three or more trips in an average month, per Placer.ai.

Trader Joe’s shows that value can also mean getting a little more for the money. Its specialty private-label products and inexpensive limited-time offerings give shoppers quality and discovery at a low price, and it ranked first among supermarkets in the 2026 American Customer Satisfaction Index.

Convenience is another form of value, especially for stretched households juggling work and family. Amazon’s fast-growing grocery business shows how much shoppers will reward speed and reliability. In Q3 2026, Amazon’s fresh groceries and everyday essentials grew about three times faster than the rest of its store and made up about half of all units sold, which CEO Andy Jassy attributed to same-day delivery. Skipping a trip to the store also spares shoppers the unplanned items that tend to land in their cart.

Brands also need to look beyond income. A household earning $100,000 with no emergency savings and rising card balances may shop more like a budget household than its income suggests. Brands that gauge customers’ financial cushion, not just their paycheck, will better anticipate where they’ll cut back first.

Policymakers have two years to deliver affordability before they face voters again. Brands don’t get that grace period: They face the same test every time a customer checks out. With so many households short on savings, the companies best positioned for what comes next will help customers stretch their budgets without stretching their credit.