The news: Category expansion and wallet integrations helped drive GMV for Affirm, per its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings. 

• Services volume grew 65%—faster than any other category—driven by recent partnerships with providers like ServiceTitan and Intuit. 
• “Other” volume, which includes “GMV from unclassified merchants and wallet providers,” grew 60%, suggesting digital wallet integrations are key to unlocking greater BNPL volume.

What this means: Installment providers have a long runway for growth, given their small share of current retail sales—only 2%, per our forecast. However, how the industry drives volume gains will need to shift as it matures: We forecast BNPL payment value growth will slip into the single digits by 2029.

The buy button at retail ecommerce won’t be enough to sustain volume for BNPL players anymore. But Affirm’s blueprint of integrations into big-ticket industries, digital wallets, and potentially smaller banks and credit unions through Affirm Edge offers a growth path for installment providers.

Recommendations for BNPL players: There’s robust consumer demand for installments in big-ticket verticals like home repair, car repair, plastic surgery services, legal services, and more. 

BNPL providers can pick up more volume in these industries through partnerships, especially for industries where services happen offline and are often unexpected, like pet care. This can help installment players seize more spending that happens in person by consumers, who may not be ready to commit to a BNPL-enabled card, but still want to space out a large payment over time without using revolving credit.

Integrating rewards for installment spending through digital wallets can also encourage more repeat spending behavior for consumers, especially Gen Zers and millennials who overindex on wallet-first behavior, per our forecast.

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