The Biggest of the Big Changes
Readers of the report will also have a chance to compare our forecasts to see how categories rolled up and how they compare to each other. A few highlights directly from the report:
Which US forecast shifted the most in absolute terms? Overall retail ecommerce sales: The forecast shifted up by $119.62 billion, now reaching $794.50 billion in 2020 instead of $674.88 billion as originally forecasted prior to the pandemic.
Which digital services will see the most unexpected increases in US users? We now forecast that 189.0 million US adults will participate in digital banking this year, an unexpected additional uptick of 22.8 million people compared with our pre-pandemic forecast. Similarly, TikTok will gain an additional 20.5 million US users compared with our first projection.
Which digital time spent forecasts increased the most? Adults in the US will spend an average of 64 more minutes with media per day in 2020 than we thought they would. Within this, users will spend almost 26 additional minutes per day on their smartphones compared with our earlier expectations.
Our Forecasts in 2021
As many have quipped, we’re all yearning for more “precedented” times--and hopefully 2021 will usher in this new era. With vaccines on the horizon, we can only hope the pandemic and the destruction it has caused will slow and then begin to abate. Our forecast teams will be carefully watching and analyzing the market as industries start to shift and as the short- and long-term effects of the pandemic become clearer.
With thousands of forecasts set to be published in 2021, our clients will have first-hand insights into the impact that COVID-19 will ultimately have on marketing and advertising, media, financial services, retail, healthcare and beyond. Just as we helped our clients navigate the challenges of COVID-19, we’ll also help them figure out their strategies as we begin to emerge from this incredibly challenging time. Please reach out if you have an interest in learning more.
A special thanks to Ethan Cramer-Flood who wrote this report, Monica Peart and Cindy Liu who ran the forecast numbers that made it possible, and Ann Marie Kerwin who oversaw the team’s work.