The news: Political ad spending for the 2026 midterms is projected to reach $11.07 billion across all media channels, according to EMARKETER's forecast. This represents a 21.4% increase over the last midterm cycle and nearly matches the $11.65 billion spent during the 2024 presidential election.

While traditional broadcast television still secures the largest share of spending at $5.60 billion, digital formats are seeing significant growth. Total digital political spend is projected to reach $3.84 billion, driven by connected TV (CTV), which is climbing to $2.70 billion—a massive 194% increase over 2022. This influx of political capital will impact programmatic inventory, particularly for brands targeting high-stakes battleground states like California, Ohio, and Texas.

Why it matters: This shift isn’t just about an overall inventory crunch; it is about where and how this capital is being deployed across the ballot. A deeper look at the 2026 spending breakdown reveals that congressional and downballot races are commanding an unprecedented share of capital:

• Senate races alone are expected to pull in $2.8 billion, while highly competitive House races are on track to absorb $2.2 billion—a staggering 40% increase over 2022 levels, per AdImpact projections.
• State legislative, gubernatorial, and down ballot contests will account for more than a third of all historical midterm ad spend, totaling roughly $3.9 billion.
• The pressure will be heavily localized rather than nationwide. For instance, Michigan is projected to absorb over $1 billion in total political advertising this cycle—more than the entire United States saw during the 2006 midterms, per Kinetiq Political Insights reports. Meanwhile, the Atlanta area is tracking to be the most expensive media market, commanding an estimated $591 million.

Implications for marketers: In 2026, massive political ad budgets and high-frequency digital media buying are no longer temporary cyclical disruptions—they are the new operational baseline. However, this pressure isn't uniform. If your core customer base is concentrated in battlegrounds—specifically California, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, or Texas—expect standard programmatic digital and local linear rates to hit historic premiums.

Because political campaigns operate on a hard deadline and are highly price-inelastic, they will outbid commercial advertisers to secure inventory before Election Day. This is driving up CPMs across open programmatic networks, social channels, and CTV, where streaming video will cross an unprecedented 25% threshold of total political spend.