TOTAL ECOMMERCE

Ecommerce sales growth in the US will accelerate a bit this year, growing 9.3% to $1.137 trillion. In 2022, total ecommerce sales surpassed $1 trillion for the first time. This year, ecommerce will make up 15.6% of total US retail sales, up from 14.7% last year. By 2027, we expect that penetration rate to exceed 20%.

FOOD & BEVERAGE

Food and beverage will be the fastest growing ecommerce category, though growth is slowing. This year, online sales will climb 20.0% to $99.70 billion. The sector’s percentage of ecommerce sales has been slowly rising every year since 2010. This year, it will represent 8.8% of US ecommerce. And in 2026, that figure will surpass 10% for the first time.

“Inflation has helped drive growth within the food & beverage category for the past year and a half,” said Whitney Birdsall, forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence. “This year, although retail sales growth is still considerably strong, easing inflation and the end of emergency SNAP allotments will contribute to the deceleration in ecommerce growth.”

HEALTH AND PERSONAL CARE

This year, the second fastest growing ecommerce category will be health, beauty, and personal care*. The sector’s sales will increase 18.9% to reach $130.50 billion, having surpassed $100 billion last year. By next year, it will be the fastest growing sector, jumping another 17.5% (food & beverage will grow 17.0%). With double-digit growth expected through the end of the forecast period, health & personal care online sales will exceed $200 billion in 2026.

“Although health, personal care, and beauty ecommerce growth peaked in 2020 because of the pandemic, growth has continued to accelerate over the past two years,” Birdsall said. “The convenience and accessibility of online shopping, along with the rise of social media and influencer marketing, has contributed to this category’s growth.”

Within health & personal care, we are now breaking out cosmetics and beauty products**, which will jump 13.6% in 2023. The sector will reach $18.40 billion in online sales this year, surpassing $20 billion next year. However, cosmetics’ share of health & beauty ecommerce will decline, as more of the sub-category’s growth comes from in-store sales.

“Testing a cosmetic’s colors and experiencing a fragrance’s smells are things some people prefer to do in-person,” said Wendy Louie-Lam, forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence.

We now break out skincare sales as a sub-category of health & beauty. Skincare ecommerce sales will grow 17.3% this year to $6.97 billion. Ecommerce is taking up an increasing share of the category’s total sales, surpassing one-third for the first time next year. Ecommerce sales for skincare products will exceed $10 billion by 2027.

APPAREL & ACCESSORIES

Apparel & accessories, the largest ecommerce category by sales, will continue growing but at a slower rate this year than in years past. Online sales growth of the apparel & accessories category will climb 9.5%, after spiking in 2020. This year, online sales in the category will reach $214.09 billion, passing the $200 billion milestone for the first time. By 2027, we expect the sector to surpass $300 billion.

“While consumers have become more comfortable returning to physical stores for shopping, the allure of ordering online and trying on items in the comfort of their own homes has not completely waned,” Louie-Lam said. “Apparel ecommerce in particular is one of the mature online categories with well-established return channels aimed at ensuring a seamless shopping experience. If the item doesn’t fit, consumers can easily take advantage of many retailers’ hassle-free exchange or return policies.”

We are also now breaking out the sub-categories of jewelry, watch, and fragrance. Jewelry and watch online sales will decline 3.3% this year to $9.84 billion. Growth will turn positive once again next year.

Online fragrance sales this year will grow 13.4% to $230 million. (Please reach out if you need total retail sales for the fragrance category).

*Health, personal care, and beauty includes over-the-counter products such as medicines, vitamins, and supplements, personal care or hygiene products, beauty products, and other household products like toiletries, baby products, and pet products. eMarketer benchmarks its US total retail sales figures against US Department of Commerce data from 2020 onward. The last full year measured was 2022.

**Cosmetics and beauty includes products such as cosmetics, haircare, fragrance, skincare, and salon styling tools; it excludes hand soaps, sanitizers, and other consumer packaged goods-type toiletries. eMarketer benchmarks its US total retail sales figures against US Department of Commerce data from 2020 onward. The last full year measured was 2022.

Methodology

Insider Intelligence forecasts and estimates are based on our proprietary analysis, and include both quantitative and qualitative data curated from public companies, government agencies, research and media firms, and interviews with expert executives in relevant fields. We regularly re-evaluate available data to ensure our forecasts reflect the latest business and economic  developments and trends.

About Insider Intelligence

Insider Intelligence is a leading research provider focused on digital transformation. We empower professionals with actionable data, insights, and analysis to make informed decisions in a digital world. Formed as a merger of eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence in 2020, we produce nearly 200 forecasts, 300 reports, 7,000 charts, and 1,500 newsletters across the Advertising, Media, and Marketing; Financial Services; Healthcare; and Retail and Ecommerce industries. Insider Intelligence is a division of Axel Springer S.E.