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AI Platform-Driven Off-Site Retail Ecommerce Sales
Source: EMARKETER Forecast, December 2025 - January 2026
Note: includes products or services recommended within a general-purpose AI platform and purchased off-site in the same session via an attributable link; includes transactions originating from retailer apps within AI platforms when the sale is completed off-site (e.g., Target’s app in ChatGPT), AI-powered browsers (e.g., Atlas), and Google’s AI Mode; excludes retailer-native AI assistants, specialized third-party AI shopping assistants (e.g., BuyScout), and AI-powered search summaries
Additional Note: General-purpose AI platforms can be used for various tasks, including shopping, where the assistant can influence, guide, and/or execute part or all of a transaction. Examples of general-purpose AI platforms include ChatGPT, Google Gemini, and Perplexity. Retailer-native AI assistants (e.g., Amazon’s Rufus, Walmart’s Sparky) and specialized third-party AI shopping assistants (e.g., BuyScout, Daydream) are not counted as general-purpose AI platforms. Retail ecommerce sales include products or services ordered using the internet, regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment. Travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, restaurant sales, food services and drinking place sales, and gambling and other vice goods sales are excluded.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms, including traffic data to US retail sites, session behavior, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.