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Retail
per Person
Physical Retail
Retail Sales, by Product Category
Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Category
Core Retail Sales
by Device
by Distribution Strategy
by Season
Scenario: Tariff Reversal
Scenario: End-to-End Agentic Commerce
Source: EMARKETER Forecast, May 2025 - January 2026
Note: excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, restaurant sales, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
Additional Note: The “limited tariffs” scenario assumes that US tariffs apply only to select trading partners. The “moderate tariffs” scenario assumes that US economic growth slows, but the downturn is limited due to partial tariff relief brought by trade negotiations with other countries. The “heavy tariffs” scenario assumes that broad US tariffs spark a global recession, leading to inflation, retaliation from other countries, and weakened business and consumer sentiment.