Beneath Amazon's strong numbers this year lie strategic questions that will shape its trajectory.

• Amazon's US retail ecommerce sales will reach $542.38, a growth of 8.7%, according to EMARKETER's June 2026 forecast. 

"Amazon is in such a unique position to give us an idea of broader consumer sentiment because of their scale and reach," said our analyst Rachel Wolff on a recent episode of "Behind the Numbers."

Our analysts examined three critical areas where Amazon's next moves could redefine its competitive position.

Can Amazon sustain its grocery momentum?

Amazon is on the verge of overtaking Costco as the second-largest US consumer packaged goods (CPG) retailer, with an 8.1% market share compared with Costco's 8.2%, according to Numerator. Walmart still leads with 20.8%, but Amazon's rapid growth in grocery has put second place within a tenth of a point.

The company's same-day perishables offering is driving this expansion. 

"Amazon said that fresh groceries are now 6 out of the top 20 best-selling products on Amazon's website," Wolff noted. Alexa shoppers are also worth more to Amazon: Customers who use Alexa for shopping spend an average of 40% more per order than those who don't, and those trying Alexa Plus sign up for Prime at nearly 25% higher rates.

Amazon's grocery push extends beyond ecommerce. The company is accelerating its Whole Foods brick-and-mortar strategy with Daily Shops, smaller-format stores designed for urban areas. But physical stores still represent just 3% of Amazon's business, a share that has stayed relatively flat for six years. The open question is whether Amazon can build a store format that grows that 3% share while holding its ecommerce grocery gains.

Will Prime Video become a premium advertising platform?

Prime Video ad revenue is growing rapidly, but it represents a small fraction of Amazon's total US ad revenues.

• Amazon's Prime Video ad revenues will grow 25.9% this year, according to our August 2026 forecast. 
• We forecast Amazon's over-the-top (OTT) ad revenues will be 10.7% of Amazon's ad revenues in 2026.

"Is Prime Video becoming a true premium ad opportunity for Amazon in its own right, or is it still being treated as an added bonus around Amazon's core shopping ecosystem?" asked our analyst Marissa Jones. Amazon hasn't broken out Prime Video ad revenues specifically in its earnings reports, and the platform's advertising tools remain heavily dependent on Amazon's retail data.

The company is pouring money into premium content, particularly sports rights, which typically attract non-endemic advertisers. Yet Prime Video's advertising appeal still stems largely from its integration with Amazon's shopping data rather than from its value as standalone premium streaming inventory.

"For Prime Video not to essentially be appealing because it leverages all the shopper data Amazon has, I don't know that that's a realistic possibility in the next couple of years," said Jones. 

Even as Amazon introduces tools built for Prime Video advertising, such as dynamic TV creative, the platform's pitch to advertisers remains tied to Amazon's retail ecosystem.

The retail holiday calendar question

Competing retailers keep timing their sales to Amazon's calendar. How long that can continue is an open question.

Amazon's Prime Day occurred June 23 to 26 this year, earlier than usual and in a different quarter than the previous year. Target's Circle Deal Days matched the same timeframe, while Walmart's summer deals overlapped from June 22 to 28.

"By timing the deals around Amazon's event, chains can drive traffic and give consumers opportunities to compare promotions," according to our analyst Karen Jacobs. But this strategy requires competitors to wait for Amazon's announcement before finalizing their own plans.

The alternative, establishing independent shopping holidays, has precedent. In China, two major retailers created Singles Day and 618 as distinct shopping events. 

"It's not out of the realm of possibility that Walmart may decide that April 7th is the new Walmart day," Wolff said. "But I think for the time being it makes more sense to ride Prime Day's coattails."

Listen to the full episode.