The situation: A cloud of uncertainty has hung over the US economy since the Trump administration’s April 9 pause of so-called reciprocal tariffs. That’s made it difficult for retailers and brands to plan for the short and medium term.

The outlook is now poised to grow even murkier. President Donald Trump extended the pause period—originally set to expire on Wednesday—until August 1. At the same time, he announced new 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, also taking effect August 1, along with steep additional levies on other countries.

The details: At EMARKETER, we’ve been operating under the assumption that the current near-universal 10% tariff regime—our “moderate” scenario—will remain in place for the rest of the year.